Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Gabriel]

Dozens of trees think otherwise...

[Evan]

This is the position of the plane according to TAWS data. Trees played no role in the crash.

I still find it odd that the Russians manipulated the CVR and FDR transcripts but neglected to manipulate the TAWS data. It's as unlikely as when they withheld the wreckage to conceal the truth, and then finally decided to hand it over, thus revealing the truth. Hmmm... what is their game...

[Evan]

And don't I get any congratulations for making the 2000th post on this thread?

[Gabriel]

And don't I get any congratulations for making the 2000th post on this thread?

Nope. The merit is all Northwester's and his conspiracy theory.

[Northwester]

Dozens of trees think otherwise...

If the TAWS data is correct then the trees are lying. If the trees are correct then the TAWS system was not working properly and then we have an entirely new problem.

So far no one stated that there was a problem with the TAWS system. Universal Avionics people extracted the data on June 28th, 2010 with NTSB representatives present.

I don't think Russians had a way to access TAWS data, that's why the equipment was sent to the US.

[Fear_of_Flying]

And don't I get any congratulations for making the 2000th post on this thread?

Actually, we passed 2000 awhile back, but in an attempt to extricate myself from this mess - and as a symbolic act of protest - I recently deleted the vast majority of my posts on this thread.

[Gabriel]

If the TAWS data is correct then the trees are lying.

Tree malfunction?

So far no one stated that there was a problem with the TAWS system.

So far nobody stated that the trees were intentionally damaged to make it look as if it had been an accident.

I don't think Russians had a way to access TAWS data, that's why the equipment was sent to the US.

And, if it was a so-elaborate conspiracy to bomb the plane, kill the president and make it look as an accident, I don't think that the Russians would have sent the TWAS to the US if they didn't know what the TWAS data would tell and if the manufacturer and the NTSB weren't part of such conspiracy.

Don't you see that all this conspiracy theory does not make any sense at all???

Of course you don't. Not for nothing I was supposed to ignore you. Please remind me of that next time.

[Evan]

...if the manufacturer and the NTSB weren't part of such conspiracy.

Aaaaaha!

This is much bigger than any of us imagined. Wait, let me get out my index cards and string...

[SYDCBRWOD]

Aaaaaha!

This is much bigger than any of us imagined. Wait, let me get out my index cards and string...

Please ensure you wear yourtinfoil hat too.

Appropo of very little, I got bored yesterday and did some digging on that Australian company that did the most recent 'report' (located post 1822 here -http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/415657-polish-presidential-flight-crash-thread-92.html) - Analytical Services Pty Ltd.

Front and centre of the report - the director of the company is, you guessed it - of Polish origin. It would seriously add to the credibility of the conspiracy theorists if they would perhaps consider producing a report written by somebody without three z's, 3 y's and ending in 'ski'.

I was reminded of this blinded by historical hatred thing listening to the news reports this morning when Her Maj went and shook hands with the ex leader of the political wing of the IRA. This was an organisation that blew up the Queen's cousin, and had a declared aim to kill the monarch herself. Yet there were still die hard Northern Islanders saying that the Queen should not have shaken hands with the bloke. She can forgive and get over the hatred as could Martin McGuinness. Its a shame that same idea of forgivness does not carry over to other parts of the world...

[Evan]

She can forgive and get over the hatred as could Martin McGuinness. Its a shame that same idea of forgivness does not carry over to other parts of the world...

It does carry over. I think the Polish government handled this with an admirable lack of prejudice. They publicly acknowledged their faults, remediated them and (mostly) exculpated their old enemy with a humility that is not often seen these days. They were careful to not let this incident incite nationalistic hatred and the thoroughness of their independent investigation was part of that effort (If you saw the Euro football riots last week, you know how deep this runs and important this is to diffuse).

Unfortunately, we have conspiracy theorists. You can't satisfy conspiracy theorists with proper investigations or logic because their logic is prejudicial. Conspiracists ensure that the hatred, fear and paranoia will always have a place to take root. Throughout history, they have been the provocateurs of distrust, the thing that keeps historically-opposed people apart and hinders efforts to achieve peace. They reject the idea of peace and forgiveness. Perpetuating the wounds of the past and ensuring that the strife will continue is their hidden agenda, hidden sometimes even from themselves.

But don't blame the Polish government because of a few cranks who are stirring it up in the lowest branches of the media. They are a peaceful intelligent people for the most part.

[Evan]

Counterknowledge: How We Surrendered to Conspiracy Theories, Quack Medicine, Bogus Science and Fake History is a polemic by British writer and Daily Telegraph journalist Damian Thompson in which he examines the dissemination and reception of fringe theories. It was published on 1 January 2008 by Atlantic Books and is his third book.

Thompson argues that we are experiencing a "pandemic of credulous thinking". People are increasingly surrendering the values of the Enlightenment to accept a barrage of "counterknowledge", which he defines as "misinformation packaged to look like fact". This concept embodies both theories for which there is no supporting evidence, and theories against which there is already evidence that directly contradicts them.

[EltorroOK]

Before I write anything in here, I will just let You know that I am not going to support conspiracy theories. I fully agree that pilots have crossed the limits. I believe that plane has struck the tree and this is why it has crashed.

I like to think rational and logical about possible reasons of any accident or disaster. I would like to admit that I am not involved in flying but I guess I can still try to look for answers by myself, based on discussion of professionals.

Most of official explanations for reasons match (at least for me). But there is a lot of people who believe that this disaster was intended.

On the other hand, I understand these poeple in some way. It is not because I am polish and I understand the history between Poland and Russia. It is because of excuses. I hate excuses, even in my everyday tasks. Would You like to know what kind of excuses I got on my mind?

I expect that all of them, or most of them would become funny for some of You - but for some group of people this is not funny at all.

• additional destruction of wreckage during transfer (I suppose You can say that it is required to move such parts, but hey, why excuse?)
• stealing property of victims (some of people are black sheeps? - why excuse?)
• lack of video from control tower on the airfield (camera broken? lack of tape? poor equipment? - why excuse?)
• part of plane moved from primary resting place (just moved for better control over the area? - why excuse?)
• some of lights (airfield lights) were broken during the disaster and after that it immediately fixed (to hide something? to prevent another accident (wow great) - why excuse?)
• wreck is kept without any protection from weather for many months (poor Russia does not have enough money to keep it in safe place...to show support...nope...why excuse?)
• parts of wreck appear (yes appear, I was not there and I cannot support this as true but just for example) as washed or cleared from dirt/mud (somebody may say: it was done by rain and snow, nothing was cleaned...yeah right - why excuse?)

Ok, I think this is enough to show some examples.
So, as I stated before, this is still crew error. But I totally do not understand why Russia do everything to undermine relations with Poland. They doing these things cause they want to show their position and strength. They just laugh doing above things. What is most funny, the rest of the world do not want to know about it (I understand this is not their business). Most of such details is not shared, and even it would be shared, I bet it become just a small issue. For the rest of world reason is known = case is closed.

I keep seeing same thing: "Simple case: pilot error". No, it is not so simple.

So there will be a group of people, conspiracy theories will remain cause such "small issues" happened. And I think it is a pity that polish government do not want to make this case open. I think it should be explained for most of people, not aviation professionals. I feel a lack of data. As of now, we can only believe in professionals' explanations. But are they correct? We can only assume that...

P.S. Sorry for my poor english. And I hope I did not offended anybody.

[Evan]

For the rest of world reason is known = case is closed.

Reason for what? The accident itself or the shoddy handling of the investigation. These are two separate affairs. Most of us agree that the investigation was flawed and unnecessarily concealed in certain ways, and most of us have come to expect this from Russian authorities. I say 'unnecessarily' because they had nothing really to hide. It's just that post-Soviet culture of paranoia driving this Russian behavior.

The problem with conspiracy theorists is that they can't separate the investigation from the crash itself. They reason that a shady investigation must mean a conspiracy caused the actual crash. This is not the case.

I keep seeing same thing: "Simple case: pilot error". No, it is not so simple.

Pilot error is rarely a "simple case". There are a lot of factors that lead to it, and the report identifies them. Many big changes have been made as a result. However, the accident was due to pilot error.

[EltorroOK]

Reason for what? The accident itself or the shoddy handling of the investigation. These are two separate affairs. Most of us agree that the investigation was flawed and unnecessarily concealed in certain ways, and most of us have come to expect this from Russian authorities. I say 'unnecessarily' because they had nothing really to hide. It's just that post-Soviet culture of paranoia driving this Russian behavior.

Reason for accident...
Why should we excuse "post-Soviet culture of paranoia"? This is not braking plate in the kitchen. This is other nation's plane crash with president on board. I expect more from Russians in this circumstances, definately not unprofessional conduct of investigation and writing lies.

Nothing to hide? Ahhh these mysteriously vanishing video tapes...(<--this is not conspiracy theory!)

The problem with conspiracy theorists is that they can't separate the investigation from the crash itself. They reason that a shady investigation must mean a conspiracy caused the actual crash. This is not the case.

How can people believe in results of "shady" investigation then?
I know Your opinion Evan, franly speaking I understand Your opinion and I do not want to argue because You are right - if Your opinion is based on data which is true. The problem is that investiagtion is very crucial and ,based on mentioned examples, result are going to be denied by conspiracy theorist. The list of mistakes and unproperly conducted research is very long in this case (too long for such tragedy). Excuse...? I do not accept that.

Pilot error is rarely a "simple case". There are a lot of factors that lead to it, and the report identifies them. Many big changes have been made as a result. However, the accident was due to pilot error.

Yes, a lot of factors. Yet again, which are going to be remebered? Drunk Polish general getting inside the cabin? This is what Russian report says for example, which is totally untrue (no evidence for being drunk, no evidence for entering the cabin). How can I understand this tragedy if the official report is bogus (at least in some points - it is small detail, irrelevant? For me not so yet again, why should I excuse that?).

And this is why all these questions arise. I do not support conspiracy theories, but on the other hand I assume Russian report is a trash. And regarding polish results of investigation - it was not done in details. It is said that members of committee had a access to evidence. This is really "funny". What kind of access? What can they check? What can they analyse? Some of analysis is done on copy of data recorders, they based their results on amateur pictures, they assumed data given by Russians is correct...
This is why I would like to see new official commitee with open data, analysis, discussion, proofs, simulations...which have not been done yet. Nobody knows why.

I have a small question: Can anobody tell me where radio altimeter sensor(?) is placed in fuselage of TU-154M?

[Fear_of_Flying]

Reason for accident...
Why should we excuse "post-Soviet culture of paranoia"? This is not braking plate in the kitchen. This is other nation's plane crash with president on board. I expect more from Russians in this circumstances, definately not unprofessional conduct of investigation and writing lies.

Nothing to hide? Ahhh these mysteriously vanishing video tapes...(<--this is not conspiracy theory!)

How can people believe in results of "shady" investigation then?
I know Your opinion Evan, franly speaking I understand Your opinion and I do not want to argue because You are right - if Your opinion is based on data which is true. The problem is that investiagtion is very crucial and ,based on mentioned examples, result are going to be denied by conspiracy theorist. The list of mistakes and unproperly conducted research is very long in this case (too long for such tragedy). Excuse...? I do not accept that.

Yes, a lot of factors. Yet again, which are going to be remebered? Drunk Polish general getting inside the cabin? This is what Russian report says for example, which is totally untrue (no evidence for being drunk, no evidence for entering the cabin). How can I understand this tragedy if the official report is bogus (at least in some points - it is small detail, irrelevant? For me not so yet again, why should I excuse that?).

And this is why all these questions arise. I do not support conspiracy theories, but on the other hand I assume Russian report is a trash. And regarding polish results of investigation - it was not done in details. It is said that members of committee had a access to evidence. This is really "funny". What kind of access? What can they check? What can they analyse? Some of analysis is done on copy of data recorders, they based their results on amateur pictures, they assumed data given by Russians is correct...
This is why I would like to see new official commitee with open data, analysis, discussion, proofs, simulations...which have not been done yet. Nobody knows why.

I have a small question: Can anobody tell me where radio altimeter sensor(?) is placed in fuselage of TU-154M?

Forgive me if I don't believe a single word you say.