Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Evan]

What about an unstabilized precision approach? I wonder if some clues can be found in the case of Delta 723, which dropped through the glideslope and struck the seawall at Logan in 1973. In that case, the approach began late and was never stabilized, and the pilots were distrustful of the ILS system as it was relatively unfamiliar to them. While concentrating on stabilizing the approach and questioning the FD, they neglected to monitor altitude in final. They struck 3000ft short and off track. Ceilings were 400 and RVR was as low as 1500ft.

...the failure of the flightcrew to monitor altitude and to recognize passage of the aircraft through the approach decision height during an unstabilized precision approach conducted in rapidly changing meteorological conditions. The unstabilized nature of the approach was due initially to the aircraft's passing the outer marker above the glide slope at an excessive airspeed and thereafter compounded by the flightcrew's preoccupation with the questionable information presented by the flight director system. The poor positioning of the flight for the approach was in part the result of nonstandard air traffic control services.

[Gabriel]

Could have been.

Except that...

Smolensk airport is equipped with the Soviet military PRMG equipment and the Tu-154M that crashed has ILS. No confusion about that.

I very much doubt that a GPS WAAS precision approach was developed for this airfield. So what's left in term of precision approaches?

By the way, if one has a GPWS, sets the MDA or DH on it, and hears "Woowooowoooowooip, Minumums!", I can hardly imagin how can one miss that. Ignore, maybe.

[Edward]

The Pilot

Answering previous questions, it was confirmed the pilot knew the airport well. Since the plane was most probably in a perfect condition and there was no report of any technical problem. It seems that Evan's concept is probable.

The pilot knew the airport, felt confident to land and was surprised not to see the strip which caused him to loose the spacial awareness- he missed the crucial 2 seconds.

There are two facts not mentioned earlier which make the theory even more plausible:

1. After the accident the Russian flight controllers reported Tu-154M to descend to quickly (which makes the recovery from the mistake more difficult)

2. New reports from Russian investigation say that the tower control did not give a clear enough information about the weather. If that was the case they might have expected to see the airport and were not focused enough on the instruments.

For the most important problem- until the investigations are over- how the VIP flying is organised in Poland. The flights are operated by the AF. Which in this case might be a contributing factor. The pilots have no requirement to have a commercial pilot licence. For the most part they don't because if one gets it one moves to earn more money in a private company (to be fair the pilot of the Smolensk Tu-154 had recently got the licence). The Polish Army has a very small fleet of passenger planes so they don't get enough of practice. Pilots are more accustomed to flying to many different airports but mostly in a risky "accomplish the mission" manner. I would consider if the training and employment conditions weren't contributing. The question which should surface is; if the additional training for an experienced commercial pilot wouldn't be a better solution for the VIPs safety in Poland?


PS The final question is if the GPWS could be ignored by the pilot because the non-operational airstip was not listed?

[aardvark2zz]

Low visibility added.

Animation of Polish Government Tu154M crash. RIP.
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Obviously, only proper official sources will have the true flight approach.
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[Django]

Gun shots at crash site

Has anyone else come across this video claiming to be shot before the emergency services reached the crash site? *Apparently* the guy who recorded the video died in mysterious circumstances (stabbed in hospital recently)??? There does appear to be gun shots, and some are claiming to see survivors moving in the wreckage.

Deshaked version.

[Geebee]

This video has been around since the early days after the event. I fully agree with ATFS_Crash and had indicated as well early on in one of my postings that unfortunately this tragedy would end up potentially with (certain) people creating urban legends.....

Yesterday even a Polish online newsite had interviewed another 'expert' claiming that the total desintegration of the plane could only be explained by an explosion. I would strongly recommend that expert to take a close look at the Tripoli crash.

This said, there was an important element added to the puzzle that became available this week.

One of the flight recorders revealed that the crew had reapplied full throttle during the last 5 seconds, however insufficient to create the momentum needed to avoid disaster.

A preliminary report has not been published yet to the best of my knowledge.

[Geebee]

Not really any relevant news from the investigation and still no preliminary report from either the Russians or the Polish investigative teams.

Meanwhile, another Polish-Russian row might be in the making as apparently the Russians handed back to the Polish authorities all mobile phones found on the scene. All but 3. The 3 not returned (but not clear if they were found at all either) were the 3 satellite phones used by the late president and his staff. A lot of speculation (surprise!) as to whether they were completely destroyed or not. But also on whether the Russian secret service might have used the opportunity to retrieve whatever could be retrieved from it (ie. text messages as suggested in the article).
Here is a link to the article in Polish: http://media.wp.pl/kat,1022943,wid,1...wiadomosc.html

I leave it in the middle wether anything of this is true or not, but it just is a very nice example of how delicate the balance is in the renewed and improved Russian-Polish relationships. And of course the fact that it does not necessarily fit in everyone's (political) agenda.

[Jonathan_Creek]

The accident happened 15 minutes earlier

First of all thank you for insightful thread.

The time of the accident was initially established to be 10:56 MSD (08:56 CEST) on 4/10. Week later bells were ringing at that time in Polish cities to commemorate the victims.

In fact Wikipedia entry, as of today, still quotes that time http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Po...e_Tu-154_crash

Yet, it was 18 days after the accident that Polish Prime Minister stated that the time of the crash is more likely to be 10:41 MSD (08:41 CEST).

Here is an article form major newspaper http://www.rp.pl/artykul/459542,4685..._ukrywaja.html , magazine http://www.newsweek.pl/artykuly/sekc...%80%94,57468,1
and here is a press conference with expert - Edmund Klich who (at the time of the conference) was officially involved in the investigation and traveled to Moscow.
http://www.tvn24.pl/12690,1655292,0,...wiadomosc.html

The sources are in Polish but Google Translate now includes this language so you are free to explore on your own.

Now, I do not know if it matters but I decided to contribute this information to this thread. It also shows how, despite living in a global village, we are still unable to communicate clearly and often relay on outdated information (as in this specific case users of Wikipedia definitely do).

Thank you.

[Geebee]

Absolutely correct and it hasn't been mentioned before. Welcome to the forum, by the way!

[Spectator]

The "pressure" theory

It looks like the "too much pressure" theory has some support.

"It has been established that in the cockpit there were individuals who were not members of the crew," said Tatyana Anodina, head of the inter-state air committee which investigates crashes in the former Soviet Union.

"The voice of one of them has been identified exactly, the voice of the other, or the others, will require additional information from the Polish side," she added.

She did not offer further details over the identities of the individuals in the cockpit.

Source: http://news.iafrica.com/worldnews/2424360.htm

[Geebee]

Unfortunately, there is more bad news.

Today there was a press conference in Russia as well and a preliminary report was presented (sorry, I don't have it right now and will stick to what the press released).

Here is the translation of the article published here:
http://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,tit...wiadomosc.html

The presidential Tu-154 approached the landing on autopilot, which controlled the altitude, course and engines. It was only partially disabled about 5 seconds before impact, after hitting the first obstacle. Autopilot was switched of completely after hitting the third obstacle - tells TVN24.

Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK) presented a preliminary report on the presidential plane crash near Smolensk. At the conference, there was no mentioning of the autopilot, but this was described in the materials distributed to journalists.

Technical Committee has not identified any terrorist attack. However, it was found that in the cockpit there were two people who do not belong to the Presidential crew. According to PAP, one of them was Lieutenant-General Andrew Błasik, the commander of the Air Force. The voice of one of those people are still identified - inform the Committee of Aviation.

The Russians reported that the disaster occurred at 10.41 Russian time. The airplane broke up at impact and there has not been any explosion or fire prior to the crash. TAWS system gave a warning 18 seconds before the crash.

The Russians claim that the crew of the Tu-154 is not going through regular exercise and was formed several days before the crash.

Presidential Tu-154 crashed April 10 at the airport near Smolensk. Killed all passengers and crew - 96 people. The Polish delegation at the ceremony was coming to Katyn.

The sub-par trained crew had been mentioned in Polish press as well the last week and so did the fact that they had relatively limited experience (hours) on the TU-154M. Of course, they were certified to fly the plane but this aspect has received quite some criticism lately.

From the above and pending the full content of the preliminary report, I think it's time to drop all conspiracy theories and realize that there were other things at play.

A few questions and observations:

• In a non-precision approach with low visibility would it be normal practice to use the autopilot?
• The presence of the commander of the Polish air force in the cockpit raises my eyebrows
• Was the crew too self-confident and did not adhere to the procedures?
• Were terrain and lack situational awareness in combination with misinterpretation or ignoring altitude readings (and warnings) what ultimately led to the disaster on top of issues resulting from the other points above?

One more thing I found on the gazeta.pl website. The crew of the JAK that landed with the journalist one hour earlier warned the TU-154M that visibility had dropped to 200 m. It also was confirmed that the plane was absolutely technically fine.

[Peter_K]

The presidential Tu-154 approached the landing on autopilot, which controlled the altitude, course and engines. It was only partially disabled about 5 seconds before impact, after hitting the first obstacle. Autopilot was switched of completely after hitting the third obstacle - tells TVN24.

THis seems a bit misleading. The longitudinal control disconnected (automatically) most likely as a result of the back pressure on the control column when the crew attempted the overshoot. The lateral control gave up after the roll commanded by the loss of part of the airfoil exceeded the capability of the autopilot.

In a non-precision approach with low visibility would it be normal practice to use the autopilot?

Unlikely on a civilian flight. It is still not clear it it was actual landing approach or just a low flyby to "check out the situation".

[Geebee]

no comments

[justLOT787]

So where are the black boxes? Why are the Russians still refuse to give back the black boxes to Poland? After all it’s Polish property. I don’t care what the media, Russian and Polish authorities say it’s not a pilot error that brought the plane down! I am convinced it was the Russians, Germans and Polish authorities that have their hand in this crash they had a lot of reasons to get rid of the Polish president. This accident/murder/assassination will never go away, questions will be asked every day.

[Gabriel]

So where are the black boxes? Why are the Russians still refuse to give back the black boxes to Poland? After all it’s Polish property. I don’t care what the media, Russian and Polish authorities say it’s not a pilot error that brought the plane down! I am convinced it was the Russians, Germans and Polish authorities that have their hand in this crash they had a lot of reasons to get rid of the Polish president. This accident/murder/assassination will never go away, questions will be asked every day.

Do you, by chance, have the slightest evidence to support anything of what you say?

Evidence known so far, on the other hand, tends to prove the contrary. The field of tree damage shows that the plane came within less than 10 ft to the ground (and crashed some small harmless trees) and started to climb in-control with the wings level. But do to the rising terrain the climb was not enough and it clipped a large tree which severed the left wing, rolled inverted and crashed.

Or the Russians shoot a missile against the left wing in the precise moment it was about to clip the big tree?