Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[guamainiac]

Eyes are bad but I thought I saw and a whole herd of them.

Stampede?

[Evan]

The Flight Engineer needed to unblock throttle so the autopilot could take over.

Is that what this refers to?

Flight Engineer: 7-0 ustawione i gazy odblokowanie

[Northwester]

Is that what this refers to?

Flight Engineer: 7-0 ustawione i gazy odblokowanie

Exactly. The thrust is set to 70% and throttle unblocked.

[guamainiac]

And 70% thrust (power?), would normally yield a climb or descent?

At those flap settings?

[Evan]

And 70% thrust (power?), would normally yield a climb or descent?

At those flap settings?

This was at 500m level flight and clean configuration (not sure about gear).

Weirdly, just before this, the unidentified speaker "A" calls out 200 meters, apropos to nothing, unless he was referring to the aforementioned "APM-y".

[Northwester]

This was at 500m level flight and clean configuration (not sure about gear).

Weirdly, just before this, the unidentified speaker "A" calls out 200 meters, apropos to nothing, unless he was referring to the aforementioned "APM-y".

The landing gear was lowered shortly after that when the speed got to 380 km/h (necessary factor).

Pilots say that "200 meters" does not fit here.

[Northwester]

Here's the part about turning off the AP:

10:40:56.0 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(First switching from auto to manual – pulling steering column)
10:40:56.0 Sound signal, F=800 Hz. Near NDB.
10:40:56.6 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(Second switching from auto to manual – throttle, applying max. thrust.)
10:40:56.6 TAWS Pull Up, Pull Up.
10:40:57.9 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(Last auto channel is off – getting off set course)

[Gabriel]

Here's the part about turning off the AP:

10:40:56.0 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(First switching from auto to manual – pulling steering column)
10:40:56.0 Sound signal, F=800 Hz. Near NDB.
10:40:56.6 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(Second switching from auto to manual – throttle, applying max. thrust.)
10:40:56.6 TAWS Pull Up, Pull Up.
10:40:57.9 Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.
(Last auto channel is off – getting off set course)

How do you know the highlighted parts, especiall the underlined ones?

(interesting to note that they had hit, or were hitting, the first small tree by 10:40:56.0, since the NDB marker shows that they were passing by it and the first tree was close but before the NDB antenna)

[Northwester]

This comes from the Tu-154 pilots comments. They maintain that this is what those signals mean.

But even from the pure logic, when you are descending and suddenly see the ground (not the RWY), do you apply thrust first or do you pull the column? It makes sense that they tried to pull up first, then apply more thrust, and then turn because of some obstacle.

[Northwester]

More puzzling is why they were descending with auto set and RWY coordinates in the GPS.

[Gabriel]

This comes from the Tu-154 pilots comments. They maintain that this is what those signals mean.

All the instances the trascript reads "Sound signal, F=400 Hz. ABSU.

But even from the pure logic, when you are descending and suddenly see the ground (not the RWY), do you apply thrust first or do you pull the column? It makes sense that they tried to pull up first, then apply more thrust, and then turn because of some obstacle.

I don't dispute the logic og that. However I have the same objections than with the SOP. SOP is one thing. Logic is another thing (or hopefully the same thing than SOP). What they did doesn't need to be neither of that.

[Northwester]

I agree. But those signals mean turning off functions of AP. Even if the sequence was different, still up to that moment they were flying on AP.


Something different. Someone tried to reconstruct reading out the alt numbers in the last phase of the flight based on the time scale from the transcript. This is how this sounds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUTVrnu1qwk

[Northwester]

This is a very dramatic reconstruction of all sounds in the last 30 seconds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8CCwjrMg88

Best to play in full screen. Don't know the source, but looks professional. Looks like they were analyzing different approach paths including all sources available (radalt, baro alt, Amelin), and trying to reconcile the discrepancy between the CVR data and clipped tree.

[Northwester]

When you watch the video from my previous post, this is what the lines mean:

yellow dots - proper approach
blue dots - approach per CVR on baro
pink dots - approach per CVR and radio
blue line - actual path
dashed pink line - hypothetical trajectory if "abort" button pushed when F/O says "we are leaving", based on radalt
dashed blue line - most likely true trajectory if "abort" button pushed when F/O says "we are leaving", based on baro
pink horiz. line - RWY elevation

[Northwester]

Ok, here's my theory C.

After the Navigator says 100m the second time, something surprising happens. The plane starts to descend fast. The Flight Officer pushes the "abort" button within a second of that event. Please notice that when the Navigator says 100m the second time, the plane is on a perfect approach path. Now the plane is in "go around" mode. The Navigator is reading the altitude, everyone is expecting the plane to pull up. After 5 seconds they realize that's not going to happen. The Captain pulls the steering column as the Navigator is reading "20". It ALL happened in 6 seconds. I think the reaction of the crew was very fast and amazing. It is possible that because of angle of descent the AP did not have enough time to execute proper "go around", or there was some malfunction.