Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Peter_K]

(...) The most they can blame Russian ATC for is in forcing them to abandon the approach at MDA, and then only if there had been adequate visibility, which there never was, so they would have to abandon it in any case.

If you think that the aim of the Polish report was to find a way to blame the crash on the Russians, then it just shows how biased and unprofessional you are.

[Gabriel]

Captain:
On 10th April 2010, the pilot did not have current qualifications for flying Tu-154M or Yak-40 as CC [captain].

Copilot:
on 10th April 2010, the pilot did not have current qualifications for flying Tu-154M as co-pilot.

Navigator:
the pilot did not have current rating awarded12 under RL-2006 § 13 item 6 to fly as a navigator of Tu-154M aircraft.

Amazing.

[Evan]

If you think that the aim of the Polish report was to find a way to blame the crash on the Russians, then it just shows how biased and unprofessional you are.

The Polish report found a way to place part of the blame upon the Russians. My observance of this just shows how biased and unprofessional I am.

[Peter_K]

The Polish report found a way to place part of the blame upon the Russians. My observance of this just shows how biased and unprofessional I am.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that you may be confusing part of the blame with contributing factors.

[Jonathan_Creek]

Ahem...

That's the Polish version. Sounds every bit like the Russian version to me. (..)
The presence of a Polish air force commander in the cockpit may also have contributed to the crash, the aviation committee said, noting that he had alcohol in his blood at the time of the crash.

This is incredible!
If it sounds like the Russian report it is because what you quote is from Russian report.

The CNN article clearly states that: "In January, a Russian-led investigation concluded that the Polish crew was at fault in the crash."

You omitted that part from CNN and bolded stuff about alcohol that CNN clearly attributed to the Russian report. Either you are lazy or you assumed that readers of this board are.

There is not a single word in the Polish report about alcohol. No, I have not read the report. I searched in it.

Here is a BBC view on the new report:
Poland: Russia shares blame for presidential jet crash

[Evan]

This is incredible!
If it sounds like the Russian report it is because what you quote is from Russian report.

The CNN article clearly states that: "In January, a Russian-led investigation concluded that the Polish crew was at fault in the crash."

You omitted that part from CNN and bolded stuff about alcohol that CNN clearly attributed to the Russian report. Either you are lazy or you assumed that readers of this board are.

There is not a single word in the Polish report about alcohol. No, I have not read the report. I searched in it.

Here is a BBC view on the new report:
Poland: Russia shares blame for presidential jet crash

Ok, I went back and re-read the CNN report and I see that you are right about the last part about alcohol being from the IAC report (which does not necessarily make it false). The way it was written made that unclear to me. But the main findings ARE from the Polish report, the key findings that the crew were inadequately trained and poorly selected for the mission. And that is all that really needs to be said.

Now, break it down. The mission was to fly into a decrepit Soviet era military base with obsolete guidance systems that were incompatible with the aircraft. Would a competent crew rely on the base air search radar or take the ATC positional guidance as reliable guidance in IMC. Nie! Not on your life. And I doubt they did. They lost control of the aircraft due to poor airmanship and poor CRM while trying to land in prohibitive weather at a non-standard airstrip that they knew had marginal guidance technology. They botched the go-around because they didn't understand the aircraft systems or limitations. You can't fault the Russians for not saving them from themselves.

Maybe the Polish are still in denial about this, but imbedded VIP pressure is what drove this crew to attempt the landing and lack of training and foresight is what did them in. Those issue are 100% on the Polish side.

I have nothing against the Polish and no anti-Polish bias. But I am dead tired of people who can't accept the responsibility for their own errors and poor judgment. The Polish people should hold their leadership fully responsible for this, and acknowledge that the Russians were merely doing what they could with what they had to work with, and that their participation was never considered any sort of precision guidance.

The cause of this crash seemed obvious long ago, but I held out my final assessment for Northwester until the Polish finalized their own report. Now they have, and it contains none of Northwester's theories and it confirms all the core findings of the Russian report. For me, there is nothing left to discuss. As for the Polish, if you wish to exact true justice, you have to stop spreading the blame elsewhere and focus on the core issues at home. I hope you do that. I have my doubts you ever will.

In any case, the truth is now known about Polish 101.

[Peter_K]

(...)I am dead tired of people who can't accept the responsibility for their own errors and poor judgment.

Didn't the Polish report just accepted that responsibility?

The Polish people should hold their leadership fully responsible for this(...)

As I said earlier, the Minister of National Defense has resigned and further heads are expected to roll, but carry on with your rant.

[guamainiac]

Just the concept of any proclamation like "good, now I know the truth about" scares the crap out of me.

Wading through some of the BBC crap only confirms how useless they really are. Some statements like "gee the pilots knew it was over after they hit the tops of the trees" just stun me with how insightful they are.

Or the fact that normal airports don't have weird searchlights out in cow pastures to aid the flying folk on foggy days. Whooda thought?

[Gabriel]

Boy, where do I start? Of the four flight crew only one (the F/E) was legal and current to operate the aircraft, according to PAF's own procedures.

The aircraft was modified with respect to the w/b envelope without notification to or participation of the manufacturer. (I'm not suggesting that caused the crash, but it does speak volumes of the culture, in which the airplane was operated).

The aircraft-specific FOM, provided by Tupolev was never translated into Polish, instead the PAF was using old LOT manuals which hadn't been updated since 1994. (ditto)

An aircraft-specific FOM supplement from the manufacturer dated 11/14/2006 never made it to the squadron. Evidently, it never made it to the investigators either, as the report makes only conjectures on what that supplement might have contained (oh my).

In other words, they weren't even legal to start the engines that morning, let alone make that approach.

In this case, unfortunately, it's painfully clear the training was not fine. As for standards, in some cases not only were they not followed, but didn't even exist. I tell you, I've read many an accident report, but this one leaves me particularly stunned.

On page 95 and subsequent we read that there was no set procedure for preparation of check pilots, nor a set procedure for flight checks. In other words, check pilots basically had to make up things they would check.

There was (and still is) no standard for MCC operations and crewmember seat-dependent duties were not (and are not still) clearly delineated.

There is no sterile cockpit procedure

The PIC obtained his Test Pilot rating from an examiner not authorized to issue such a rating during a flight not appropriate as a test pilot checkride.

In fact, there is not a comprehensive FCOM or FSM that would standardize flight crew procedures to any appreciable extent (this at a Presidential squadron).

The list goes on and on....

I could see if this was Zimbabwe, but this is Poland, a nation that is very rightfully proud of its aviation heritage. How is any of the above possible at such a high level?

I agree 100% with the above. These are the "real" core, root, systemic causes behind the crash.

Going to the more direct causes in the crash sequence, the Polish report confirmed that:

- NDB approach attempted in impossible conditions, knowing forehand that it would not work out, just to say to the VIPs "You see? I've tried but it's impossible" instead of "I won't even attempt that approach"
- Unstabilized approach, with a late start of the descent that put the plane in a steep trajectory with a high airspeed and sink rate.
- Violation of sterile cockpit, with foreign persons in the cockpit (and interacting with the crew) not only below 10000ft but all the way through the failed approach.
- Late start of a go-around, with descent continued beyond the MDA.
- Playing with the baro setting to silence the GPWS.
- Complete lack of CRM, crew coordination or the most basic teamwork.

[Evan]

I agree 100% with the above. These are the "real" core, root, systemic causes behind the crash.

Going to the more direct causes in the crash sequence, the Polish report confirmed that:

- NDB approach attempted in impossible conditions, knowing forehand that it would not work out, just to say to the VIPs "You see? I've tried but it's impossible" instead of "I won't even attempt that approach"
- Unstabilized approach, with a late start of the descent that put the plane in a steep trajectory with a high airspeed and sink rate.
- Violation of sterile cockpit, with foreign persons in the cockpit (and interacting with the crew) not only below 10000ft but all the way through the failed approach.
- Late start of a go-around, with descent continued beyond the MDA.
- Playing with the baro setting to silence the GPWS.
- Complete lack of CRM, crew coordination or the most basic teamwork.

Don't forget the lack of protocol or experience with a 4-member crew.

I think the pilot application only had one question on it:

Are you a real man of courage? _Y _N.

[guamainiac]

Perhaps the General was on to the sly ways of a flight crew. If you just pull the power off for a minute and then go high power and rock the wings and stuff who would know you were never within 5,000 of the ground?

Shouldn't the other member of the 4 man crew have been Russian? According to the military protocol the leader-man was supposed to have been "Putin Approved".

[Peter_K]

The 36 Special Regiment is no more. Some 13 officers including two generals are also out of a job, plus some civilian employes of the Ministry of National Defense including the Vice Minister. Sadly, some of the pilots learned from the media that they are out of the job. Without civilian qualification it may be somewhat tough for them.

[guamainiac]

Depends on how you define "out of a job" I suppose?

Did they get a transfer?

Did they get the sack, as in out on the street?

One thing as an officer is that you can never guarantee a retirement. There is a rule that if you are passed over for promotion a second time you are out and like a pyramid it starts to narrow at the top.

[Peter_K]

Depends on how you define "out of a job" I suppose?

Did they get a transfer?

Did they get the sack, as in out on the street?

One thing as an officer is that you can never guarantee a retirement. There is a rule that if you are passed over for promotion a second time you are out and like a pyramid it starts to narrow at the top.

Too early to say. It is still a developing news. Military usually looks after its own, so I imagine some of them may have some sort of a parachute, though perhaps not a golden one.

[guamainiac]

Here in the US I wonder what the percentage is for washing out?

I don't see how in the military they can cut a "golden" parachute since you are bound by regulation and protocol. Where they can transfer you to is probably the real art of the deal along with who you would be working for.

One of my buddies got his orders to "Presidential Yacht Sequoia" and at that point I knew he was a person who was a bit special.