Malaysia Airlines Loses Contact With 777 en Route to Beijing

[starchyme]

I came to bring myself up-to-speed, but see everyone else knows nothing also.

[Gabriel]

I came to bring myself up-to-speed, but see everyone else knows nothing also.

True. Everyone else knows nothing. Here or elsewhere.

[Observer]

Inmarsat data released

It seems that Inmarsat raw data was released:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/27/us-malaysia-airplane-data-idUSKBN0E70C720140527

[Observer]

Satellite data released

Here,:

http://www.dca.gov.my/mainpage/MH370%20Data%20Communication%20Logs.pdf

Source: BBC

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27576409

[Peter Kesternich]

Gabriel / Evan,

I am sure you are familiar with Helios. In Helios, the pilots and most or all of the passengers were unconscious or dead due to climbing to altitude without pressurizing the airplane. According to the interceptor jets observations, one cabin crew was still (barely) conscious and (unsuccessfully) trying to make radio contact or fly the airplane, which eventually ran out of fuel and crashed.

(...)

If I remember correctly, Helios Airways flight 522 completed the flight pre-programmed in the FMS, entered the programmed holding pattern near Athens, and only crashed after running out of fuel seventy minutes later.
In case the cause of the MH370 disappearance was defect in the pressurization system similar to what was experienced by Helios Airways 522, we would still need to explain the sudden change in direction over the Gulf of Thailand. If the scenario was exactly the same, I would expect that MH370 had continued its flight toward Beijing.

[Gabriel]

If I remember correctly, Helios Airways flight 522 completed the flight pre-programmed in the FMS, entered the programmed holding pattern near Athens, and only crashed after running out of fuel seventy minutes later.
In case the cause of the MH370 disappearance was defect in the pressurization system similar to what was experienced by Helios Airways 522, we would still need to explain the sudden change in direction over the Gulf of Thailand. If the scenario was exactly the same, I would expect that MH370 had continued its flight toward Beijing.

Peter, in his other post, pothole explained that his hypothesis was that the pilots first programmed the AP to turn around and descend to say 10K feet, and only then succumbed to hypoxia because their O2 system failed.

However, the pax system didn't fail so they make it alive and well to 10K feet, where O2 is no longer needed, and only then a pax took control of the plane, making the north-western turn along the Strait of Malacca and then South into the Indian Ocean. Not said buit implied, then the pax climbed again to cruise altitude (thus enabling the plane to fly so far and for so long before running out of fuel), and now yes, everyone perished due to hypoxia.

As I've said, I find this chain of events extremely unlikely, but not enough to completely discard it, since probably whatever happened to this plane would have been considered highly unlikely too.

But a pilot's murdercide fits very well the few known facts so far, and it's much simpler, so for me by now remains the first candidate. Heard of Occam's razor?

[Evan]

Gabriel / Evan,

I am sure you are familiar with Helios.

I actually brought this up early in the thread but with the caveat that this scenario is quite different. Certainly a stealth decompression scenario comes to mind at first, but then the last transmission did not indicate any cognitive loss and a course change occurred shortly thereafter, followed by another. Also it fails to explain the transponder and ACARS shutdown.

In a rapid decompression scenario however, after donning the masks, typically the first action of the crew is to set the autopilot for rapid descent to 10,000ft. They should have had the time to do that even if the masks malfunctioned. But there was no rapid descent. So it doesn't fit.

I am not gifted enough to be able to fill in all the blanks. But perhaps some small structural failure (or explosion or bomb) presumably somewhere near or below the cockpit, that caused some significant damage (failure of the ACARS, transponder and possibly the pilots' oxygen system) but still allowed the plane to keep flying.

Again, those are enormous blanks you need to fill in first. When you can identify the nature of this scenario in technical terms (which I for one can't begin to fathom) let me know. I know the systems fairly well and they are all nested together down there, so it seems like a huge plot convenience to me.

But all this plus a failure of both oxygen masks and the auxilliary...?

Unlikely? Sure.

So I think you answered your own question there.

[vaztr]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/mh370-us-navy-dismisses-experts-comments-on-search-pings/5485970

And now the US Navy backtracks on what they first said about the ping dismissal.

These guys are doing as well as the original investigators and are providing more and more ammo for the conspiracy theorists

Would ONE AGENCY please take control of this situation - it'd be a hell of a lot easier on all involved

I esp. feel for those who have lost loved ones and are hearing 'stories' from various 'authorities' none of which seem to have a clue

VAZ

[Gabriel]

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/may/mr048.aspx

Yesterday afternoon, Bluefin-21 completed its last mission searching the remaining areas in the vicinity of the acoustic signals detected in early April by the Towed Pinger Locator deployed from ADV Ocean Shield, within its depth operating limits.

The data collected on yesterday's mission has been analysed. As a result, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre can advise that no signs of aircraft debris have been found by the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle since it joined the search effort.

Since Bluefin-21 has been involved in the search, it has scoured over 850 square kilometres of the ocean floor looking for signs of the missing aircraft.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and in its professional judgement, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370.

[pacoperez]

I think that if they would share all their findings and technical data with the general public someone would find the clue to allocate the plane. And probably for free!!!

[sjwk]

I think that if they would share all their findings and technical data with the general public someone would find the clue to allocate the plane. And probably for free!!!

Maybe so, but I suspect a million other people would be sending in their own 'proof' - how do they know which one to follow up on?

[Evan]

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and in its professional judgement, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370.

A bit hasty to say that. Apparently the Bluefin was operating beyond its depths limits and the terrain is full of hiding places. All we know is that the drone did not find anything, not that there is nothing there. If they discount the area completely, we might never find it...

I also find it hard to believe that three ping detections from three different sources in the same general vicinity can be attributed to natural phenomena or electrical interference.

[Peter Kesternich]

(...)Certainly a stealth decompression scenario comes to mind at first, (...)

If I have read and understood the discussion of cabin pressure loss on this thread so far, there is no such thing as "stealth decompression". Regardless of whether the pressure drops suddenly or slowly, as soon as the cabin altitude climbs through a preset value, there is an alert and the masks deploy.

[Peter Kesternich]

(...)Would ONE AGENCY please take control of this situation - it'd be a hell of a lot easier on all involved(...)

May I ask who you have in mind for the job? Since this drama is playing out in international waters, it will be difficult to find the right agency.

[Evan]

If I have read and understood the discussion of cabin pressure loss on this thread so far, there is no such thing as "stealth decompression". Regardless of whether the pressure drops suddenly or slowly, as soon as the cabin altitude climbs through a preset value, there is an alert and the masks deploy.

First of all I'd like to be very clear that I don't think that MH-370 was a slow-onset pressurization failure scenario like Helios 522. It doesn't fit.

But Peter, there is such a thing and the key word there is 'scenario'. Yes, the horn sounded warning Helios' crew of the cabin altitude, but they mistook it for a malfunctioning configuration warning, perhaps because they had some trouble with that recently. Scenarios usually involve factors like this that inhibit situational awareness. The masks do not 'deploy' in the cockpit so they continued climbing. They did report a problem with the A/C but quickly succumbed to hypoxia before they could identify the pressurization switch being left in manual (Helios ground center asked them to check this, but it did not register at that point). It only took 8 minutes from the warning horn sounding to loss of cognitive functions.

So there you go, stealth decompression scenario (ok, stealth pressurization failure scenario actually, the cabin actually never pressurized).