Malaysia Airlines Loses Contact With 777 en Route to Beijing

[pacoperez]

Yes Gabriel, you're right, but I do believe that they was really communications from that a/c and that they are hiding it for some reason. There is no explanation for such sudden data vanishing.

[Peter Kesternich]

You forgot to add a "KAL-007" scenario. Aircraft was destroyed by a vietnamese MIG-21, by mistake.

The Vietnamese Air Force flies Sukhoi Su-27 Flankers these days. There is no cold war going on between Malaysia and Vietnam, and Vietnam wouldn't be suspecting any hostile aircraft from this area. There was a flight plan filed, the flight was on course, and Vietnam either was expecting the aircaft to enter its air space or was already in ATC contact with it. So - nope, no KAL007 scenario.

The flight plan notwithstanding, KAL007 had strayed hundreds of miles off course and South Korea was (is) a US ally and definitely NOT a friendly country for the Soviet Union. Also, the USA were conducting intelligence-gathering flights in the same are where KAL007 was shot down, so there is also the aspect of a mistaken identity.

Suggested reading for starters:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAL_007

The KAL 007 scenario is still the number one, right now.
1) Whoever shot the aircraft down, is right now picking up the pieces and hiding evidences
2) The soviets did this, days after the destruction of KAL 007, they collected parts and evidences, including bodies.

Come on AVION1... we have dealt with that. Nobody had a reason to shoot down that plane, and if it was an accident, why not admit it? The world will find out about it anyway. And I seriously doubt that - current economic developments notwithstanding - any nation aound the Guld of Siam has the technological means to cover this up right ow and not get caught doing so.

[Peter Kesternich]

Forgive me for bringing up the radar issue again:

a) Was there primary radar coverage of this area?

b) If yes, what did the primary radar show after the secondary surveillance radar (SSR) contact was lost?

If a military primary radar did indeed show that the aircraft turned off course, they should have been able to track it for a while, and then the search should be conducted where the primary radar return ended.

By the way - do I remember that correctly? Turning off the established route is normal practice during an emergency that requires the aircraft to descend, so as to stay clear of other traffic on the same route. I think I read that somewhere.

[MairzyDotes]

I think this was in the WSJ...

My friend and I were I invited into the cockpit by (the) pilot and co-pilot, Fariq Ab Hamid, and sat there for the duration of the flight from takeoff until landing," Ms. Roos said in a Facebook message sent to The Wall Street Journal. She said at least one of the pilots was smoking during the flight.

"My friend and I were allowed to take photos in the cockpit without intervention, but didn't in any way distract the pilots from their duties," she said.

Ms. Roos said she didn't question the flight crew's professionalism and didn't feel unsafe during the flight. She said she wasn't trying to imply that Mr. Fariq had any role in the disappearance of Flight MH370 and expressed sympathy to the families of those aboard

.

[Peter Kesternich]

I think this was in the WSJ...

.

Relevance?

[BoeingBobby]

Maybe an alien abduction!

See, I knew it was only a matter of time!!

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/missing-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-alien-abduction-discussed-social-media-conspiracy-1439711

[Gabriel]

Forgive me for bringing up the radar issue again:

a) Was there primary radar coverage of this area?

b) If yes, what did the primary radar show after the secondary surveillance radar (SSR) contact was lost?

If a military primary radar did indeed show that the aircraft turned off course, they should have been able to track it for a while, and then the search should be conducted where the primary radar return ended.

The previous quote from AvHerald:

On Mar 11th 2014 Malaysia's Air Force reported their primary radar data suggest, the aircraft may have turned west over the Gulf of Thailand at about 1000 meters/3000 feet below the original flight level (editorial note: another possible interpretation could be: at 1000 meters of height compared to 10000 meters original level) and flown past the east coast near Khota Baru and the west coast of Malaysia near Kedah, the radar return was last seen at 02:40L near Pulau Perak in the Straits of Malacca, about 285nm westsouthwest of the last known (secondary) radar position. Local Police at the city of Bharu confirmed a number of locals reported lights and a low flying aircraft at Bharu at an estimated height of 1000 meters/3000 feet.

That's likely the reason why so much SAR effort is now concentrated on the Malacca Strait.

By the way - do I remember that correctly? Turning off the established route is normal practice during an emergency that requires the aircraft to descend, so as to stay clear of other traffic on the same route. I think I read that somewhere.

Yes, if you can't contact ATC immediately you turn 45° away.

[BoeingBobby]

All kidding aside, a good read on what the ACARS is doing. I know that I see it transmitting about every 20 minutes on the lower FMS in the 74. It will show either VHF, HF or SATCOM depending what it is using for the data link.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_Communications_Addressing_and_Reporting_System

[starchyme]

Seems to be rising nearer the top of candidates of possible explanations given the scant information available.

Pilot turns off transponders/communications, lowers altitude, changes course, maybe even asks passengers to turn off cell phones due to "interference" or what have you. Had the pilot been acting under duress, or there had been a mechanical problem, it seems more likely you get some sort of passenger communication.

This pilot was as savvy as they come, it sounds like, with extreme hours and a home made flight simulator to boot, so he could have done basically whatever he wanted with this aircraft.

Well, until the information about various passenger's phone still operable (meaning it is not switched off, and not under water), it will be hard to make out any scenarios

[MairzyDotes]

I think this was in the WSJ...

Relevance?

I was just citing the originating source, lost the link for the article. Just another piece of information that was provided that may or may not pan out or be relevant. It's up to those investigating to determine which.

[sjwk]

OK, random speculation time, largely just to improve my own non-existent knowledge:

cruising on route, *something* happens (thinking along the lines of Helios 522) to incapacitate crew/passengers, or maybe initially just prevents radio and identification transmissions (electrical fault/fire?) and crew initially descend to low altitude to rectify; either way engage autopilot set for flight back towards land at 1000m before becoming incapacitated. Air doesn't clear, all still incapacitated hence no outbound calls from passengers, but inbound calls ring. Plane 'seen' at low altitude heading west back across Malaysia. Last seen by military radar continuing on autopilot out to sea until it runs out of fuel.

Is this plausible? presumably there are independent radios, a single incident other than deliberate action could not take out all means of transmitting? Or maybe the radios were working but the crew weren't, or weren't coherent (faint mumbling picked up by other pilot?).
Is it feasible that crew would be incapacitated so quickly as to be unable to use the radio, but be able to set the autopilot for low altitude?

Just grabbing at various threads, both confirmed and unconfirmed, throwing them in the air and seeing what pattern emerges.

Alternatively: Bad case of food poisoning and a faulty inflatable autopilot, but retired fighter pilot with a drink problem had had his passport stolen and so wasn't on the plane?

On the passport front - an article on the BBC mentions that after Air India Express 812 crashed in 2010, 10 passengers were found to have been travelling on stolen or forged passports, so clearly there is a lot of it that goes on and, while certainly my first thoughts were around those, they clearly could just be coincidental.

[AVION1]

Forgive me for bringing up the radar issue again:

a) Was there primary radar coverage of this area?

b) If yes, what did the primary radar show after the secondary surveillance radar (SSR) contact was lost?

If a military primary radar did indeed show that the aircraft turned off course, they should have been able to track it for a while, and then the search should be conducted where the primary radar return ended.

By the way - do I remember that correctly? Turning off the established route is normal practice during an emergency that requires the aircraft to descend, so as to stay clear of other traffic on the same route. I think I read that somewhere.

Remember that we are dealing with third world countries, and probably fourth world countries, if that even exists.

[Bryan]

OK, random speculation time, largely just to improve my own non-existent knowledge:

I am wondering (if reports are true) how an aircraft flying a low altitude at a good speed, sometime after the report of losing contact with a commercial jet, is not noticed by the military.

I guess I am over estimating the capability of the military out there, but wouldn't they at least be watching the radar closely after the loss of contact? Would an object flying across the country, and out of their air space, and into the space of another not at least get a cursory look?

If this plane was headed out over Sumatra and into the Indian Ocean, will we ever find it? Although at 1000m, it will likely be found in the side of a mountain on Sumatra.

Strange, this one.

[Peter Kesternich]

I was just citing the originating source, lost the link for the article. Just another piece of information that was provided that may or may not pan out or be relevant. It's up to those investigating to determine which.

Actually, I was questioning the relevance of your quote from WSJ. The story related there happens hundreds of times each day all over the world and the only connection to MH370 is that the the First Officer of MH370 was also F/O during the mentioned episode. It's just someone trying to get their name in the papers and of course mainstream journalism is happy to oblige.

[Peter Kesternich]

Remember that we are dealing with third world countries, and probably fourth world countries, if that even exists.

AVION1 - as far as the development goes, all the countries in the affected area (maybe with the exception of Cambodia) are at least "second world" countries. Seeing from your profile that you are from Arkansas, and having travelled both Arkansas and Malaysia, I'd say you'd be lucky if all of Arkansas had the development that wide parts of Malaysia show. Southeast and East Asia are one of the fastest-developing areas of the planet.