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Second Turnback This Week Due to Unruly Pax

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  • An acquaintance died from breast cancer this month. Apparently she delayed (or was delayed) in seeing a doctor during the initial 10 day (errr, 10 month) lockdown to flatten the curve…and this delay (the actual full lockdown) likely allowed it to metastasize past being removable.

    Meanwhile, the majority of affected people dealt with a nasty, old-fashioned flu incidence.

    Science or politics?
    Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by 3WE View Post
      Science or politics?
      Risk management.

      --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
      --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Evan View Post

        And I'm not alone. A lot of people aren't compelled to move with the herd.

        But git along little doggies. It's your misfortune and none of my own.
        How does that mouthdiaper feel now, Evan? Nice being in the herd, isn't it?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post

          How does that mouthdiaper feel now, Evan? Nice being in the herd, isn't it?

          https://oversight.house.gov/wp-conte...NAL-REPORT.pdf
          Ohh G*d, why doesn't this surprise me?

          Comment


          • conspicuously absent from that gazillion page opinion piece is the orange-man's suggestion to inject ourselves with bleach...cuz, you know, it kills the virus

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post

              How does that mouthdiaper feel now, Evan? Nice being in the herd, isn't it?

              https://oversight.house.gov/wp-conte...NAL-REPORT.pdf
              Are you serious? Are you seriously asking me to take this politically biased House sub-committee report controlled by a thoroughly corrupted Republican party seriously?! The party that absurdly and aggressively politicized a public health crisis? THIS is the herd!

              ATL, I have always gone to scientific sources for my scientific information. I could find no scientific (or engineering) evidence in this report—or any scientific source—to support the claim that masks designed to filter particulates smaller than the virus do not work as reasonable protection (or, as Gabriel put it, risk management). It is expressly what they were designed to do.

              However, in order to work, they must be adjusted and worn properly (most people didn't even try). They also must be worn diligently and willingly by a population concerned about the common good (many people childishly refused to do their part in preventing a public health disaster). In fact, that is why the mask advice had to become a mask mandate.

              Do mask mandates work in the United States? Not at all! Not because masks don't offer very good protection, but because people are selfish, childish and don't make the critical effort.

              When I say 'people' ATL, I am talking about the herd.

              The flaw in mask mandates isn't the masks. The flaw is the herd. The people are doomed. When the next deadly pandemic comes along (possibly sooner than you think) the herd is doomed.

              I departed from the herd, wore masks in enclosed public spaces and avoided contracting the deadly-or-long-term-disabling original variants of the virus. After a flight from Barcelona, I received an email from the airline telling me the passenger to the left of me had tested positive for Covid. I remembered her not wearing the mask except when the FA's came around, and was clearly unwell. I tested negative. That is my empirical evidence, and it speaks for itself.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                After a flight from Barcelona, I received an email from the airline telling me the passenger to the left of me had tested positive for Covid. I remembered her not wearing the mask except when the FA's came around, and was clearly unwell. I tested negative. That is my empirical evidence, and it speaks for itself.
                No it doesn't. What happened with all the scientific approach to knowledge that you mentioned before? There is a reason why scientific testes are done a) in a large sample, b) against a control group, and c) double-blind when possible. Your single-datapoint empirical evidence doesn't meet any of these 3 criteria.

                I am not contesting the rest of your post, but the last paragraph was very let's say unfortunate.

                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

                  No it doesn't. What happened with all the scientific approach to knowledge that you mentioned before? There is a reason why scientific testes are done a) in a large sample, b) against a control group, and c) double-blind when possible. Your single-datapoint empirical evidence doesn't meet any of these 3 criteria.

                  I am not contesting the rest of your post, but the last paragraph was very let's say unfortunate.
                  Did you read the part about the entire deadly phase of the pandemic, and how I did not contract the virus whilst wearing a mask? That’s hardly a single datapoint. But I didn’t say that was a scientific conclusion. I said it was empirical evidence to support my argument. When you invent the parachute, strap it on, jump out of an airplane and land safely in the ground, how many datapoints is that? Would you conclude that it works?

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                    When you invent the parachute, strap it on, jump out of an airplane and land safely in the ground, how many datapoints is that? Would you conclude that it works?
                    Evan, what happened to you? You were so rational.

                    If is toss a dice while saying "six" and I get a six, would you conclude that it works?
                    If you jump from an airplane without a parachute, you pretty much know what will happen with a very large probability based on a large number of cases. So if you land safely by doing something different, you can quite conclusively conclude that that something different that you did was a special cause that explains the different outcome.

                    My daughter got COVID (we never knew from where) and the rest 4 of us in my family didn't despite us living in the same house and not using masks inside. That was quite surprising, especially for my wife who drove my daughter to school and back, seating in a very small confined space next to each other in the front seat, for a few days when she must have been already contagious before getting symptoms and testing positive, point at which she quarantined in her room.

                    If I were to follow your reasoning, which I will not, that would be empirical evidence to support that the masks don't work. So there you have, we are tied.

                    As I said before, I was not contesting the rest of your post. I am not an anti-masker, rather the opposite. I was an avid mask wearer during the pandemic. In June this year I went to Argentina for my father's 80th birthday and I used the mask in the airplane and airports. I wanted to avoid any risk for my old-age parents. When I returned to the US I did not use the mask. About 1 week later I got flu-like symptoms and tested positive (for the 1st time). I may have caught it in my return trip, or in the Argentina-Ecuador match I attended in Houston 3 days before I started with the symptoms. We went to the match together with my family and a family of friends. No-one else in my family got it. 3 of the 4 of our friend's family got it (they started with symptoms 2 to 3 days after me).

                    And you are comparing this random behavior with surviving a jump from an airplane with vs without parachute?

                    The masks do work because, ON AVERAGE, people who used it were significantly less likely to get COVID. Unlike a one-of anecdote when testing a just-invented parachute for the first time, Your one-off anecdote is very not interesting for a case like this.

                    --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                    --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

                      Evan, what happened to you? You were so rational.
                      You're kidding, right?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Evan View Post

                        Are you serious? Are you seriously asking me to take this politically biased House sub-committee report controlled by a thoroughly corrupted Republican party seriously?! The party that absurdly and aggressively politicized a public health crisis? THIS is the herd!
                        I'm not asking you to do anything, you overestimate your significance to me, I don't care if you live, breathe or die. You, however, appear to be asking ME to believe that you would have reacted to this report differently had it been released by a thoroughly NON-corrupted Democratic party. I don't believe that for a second, sorry.

                        I do hope for your sake the next set of "mandates" does not include wearing three pair of bloomers on your head, 'cause, Goodness knows, you would be all about that, too. Because Thienthe(TM). And risk management.

                        I'm sorry but you've been had. And you will be had again. Because you want to be.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Gabriel View Post

                          Evan, what happened to you? You were so rational.
                          I could pay you the same back-handed compliment.

                          If is toss a dice while saying "six" and I get a six, would you conclude that it works?
                          Is there something in the design of the dice that would have it land on six? If so, then yes. Otherwise, this is a terrible analogy.

                          If you jump from an airplane without a parachute, you pretty much know what will happen with a very large probability based on a large number of cases. So if you land safely by doing something different, you can quite conclusively conclude that that something different that you did was a special cause that explains the different outcome.
                          If you first invented the parachute using known and proven physics (science) and models, and then made a single jump where you landed safely, you have proven that it works when used properly (this is a great analogy). You have jumped out of an airplane. You have landed safely, uninjured, and walked away. What caused this to happen? The parachute. Absolutely.

                          Does the parachute always prevent death or injury? No. If you sling it over one arm and jump, it won't be of any use. This is the analogy to how most people wore masks.

                          But here's the essential part: If most people slung the parachute over one arm and jumped, and therefore the death rate remained abysmally high, while those few people who properly strapped the parachute on had a very high rate of survival, would you conclude that the parachute doesn't work? Of course not. But that's what those with a political agenda were trying to do.

                          However, they couldn't get the report to conclude that mask themselves don't work (because they do, when used properly). Instead, the claim is that mask mandates don't work (because they don't if many people don't do their part in compliance). Mask mandates were a social failure, and this societal failure helped turn a manageable public health emergency into a pandemic level disaster.

                          But, don't be fooled by this Congressional subcommittee report, the partisan initiative became a platform from which the following statement could be derived:

                          FINDING: The Biden Administration Exceeded its Authority by Mandating Masks
                          Really?! Those of us without the gift of selective memory vividly recall the hospital and ER facilities being overwhelmed, the morgues being overwhelmed, the high burn-out amongst health care professionals, the enormous social cost of treating so many patients in ICU units. Clearly, this was a public health emergency and the President has definite authority to enact whatever measures deemed necessary to get it under control. Not only is that authority granted, it is a Presidential responsibility to the nation that must be fulfilled.

                          The Public Health Service Act grants the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services authority to implement regulations to "prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases" into U.S. states or possessions​.

                          Now their guy, an unhinged reality television star and serial business failure scion of wealth with no public service experience, told us to (maybe) try eating bleach while brushing off the seriousness of the situation. I don't see that in the report...

                          Had the report been written by epidemiologists, as it should have been, it almost certainly would have concluded:

                          FINDING: The Trump Administration Failed to Protect the Nation by Mandating Masks

                          My daughter got COVID (we never knew from where) and the rest 4 of us in my family didn't despite us living in the same house and not using masks inside. That was quite surprising, especially for my wife who drove my daughter to school and back, seating in a very small confined space next to each other in the front seat, for a few days when she must have been already contagious before getting symptoms and testing positive, point at which she quarantined in her room.
                          There are plenty of anecdotal cases like this. One of the mysteries of the virus is the fact that certain people either are immune or never develop symptoms. There is also the fact that, while Covid in the initial variants was airborne and contagious, later variants were much more contagious, and in any case, the viral particles still face a difficult path of contagion. Most don't infect anyone.

                          What does this say about the effectiveness of masks? Nothing!

                          Lastly, what was the goal of the mask mandate? To prevent all transmission and end the outbreak? No. It was to reduce the number of daily transmissions and therefore reduce the catastrophic burden the virus was placing on public health resources. If society had complied with a real effort and seriousness, would this goal have been achieved? Absolutely.

                          However, many American's stood their ground against what was in the best interests of their nation, overwhelmed the hospitals and prevented people who had been doing their part from getting access to needed medical care. My uncle, who died from Covid, had a foot injury that needed surgery. It was unsafe to go the hospitals, so he cared for it best he could at home. It became seriously infected. Ultimately, he had no choice but to visit the hospital. He was admitted for surgery and contracted Covid almost immediately. The fact that things deteriorated to that point is not just a national shame, it's a national crime. If a certain someone were not above the law, he might be made to answer for it.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by ATLcrew View Post
                            you overestimate your significance to me
                            No, I think you made that pretty clear with "internet schmoe". I guess that's your pilot wings talking. It's certainly disappointing, but I think you overestimate how important this significance is to me.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by TeeVee View Post
                              conspicuously absent from that gazillion page opinion piece is the orange-man's suggestion to inject ourselves with bleach...cuz, you know, it kills the virus
                              Indeed. They might as well have included that, since nothing else said and done at the time had anything to do with Thienthe(TM), so why not stick the bleach thing there as well?

                              My favorite, though, was the line that apparently was attributed to His Epidemiological Majesty Little Tony "I AM the Thienthe(TM)" Fauci who said, "The 6-feet distancing thing just kind of appeared." All I can say "way to go, Doc, way to go."

                              I'm not sure what the purpose of this report really is. Nobody will be held responsible for any of this...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Evan View Post
                                blah blah blah...
                                Evan, I am not an anti-masker. I know it works. I am not defending the report at all. I have not even read the report and my response to you is unrelated to it.

                                I only objected to a single sentence of your post.

                                After a flight from Barcelona, I received an email from the airline telling me the passenger to the left of me had tested positive for Covid. I remembered her not wearing the mask except when the FA's came around, and was clearly unwell. I tested negative. That is my empirical evidence, and it speaks for itself.
                                That isolated-case datapoint is not evidence that speaks for itself about anything. Neither does another individual anecdote of another person NOT using the mask and not getting covid. Or of an individual person using the mask (even a perfect mask and wearing perfectly) and still getting covid.

                                And nothing of what you said above contests my objection. And I don't think that there is anything you or anybody can say that will contest it.

                                Single datapoint cases are most of the times, including this one, NOT empirical evidence that speaks for itself. Exceptions are cases where you always get the same result in every datapoint and introducing a new factor in one attempt suddenly totally changes the outcome. Like that parachute. Unlike the mask. For the mask you don't have always the same outcome neither with or without the mask, you need a statistical analysis to asses if the difference in the average outcome is practically and statistically significative. And for that you need a sample of more than one. MUCH more than one. Which makes your individual one-case anecdote totally irrelevant. Which is the opposite of speaking for itself.

                                Any objection with that last paragraph?

                                --- Judge what is said by the merits of what is said, not by the credentials of who said it. ---
                                --- Defend what you say with arguments, not by imposing your credentials ---

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