Originally posted by Evan
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"Fly to Bordeaux as if that was the intended destination"
means that Bordeaux is NOT the intended destination. This was an integral part of "my logic", and hence not a flaw in it.
not even as a stop-over, not unless they wanted to operate the flight at a significant loss, upend their scheduling and alienate customers.
A flight plan was filed giving the legal destination as Bordeaux in order to allow then to take on less fuel. It's a loophole in the system that, naturally, has become SOP.
But lets be clear here, they never intended to land there, and would only do so in a worst-case scenario.
Let's start quoting parts of the FARs (not that they applied for the AF flight, but to get an idea of the kind of things the regulators ask for):
No person may release for flight or takeoff a turbine-engine powered airplane (other than a turbo-propeller powered airplane) unless, considering wind and other weather conditions expected, it has enough fuel--
(1) To fly to and land at the airport to which it is released;
(2) After that, to fly for a period of 10 percent of the total time required to fly from the airport of departure to, and land at, the airport to which it was released;
(3) After that, to fly to and land at the most distant alternate airport specified in the flight release; and
(4) After that, to fly for 30 minutes at holding speed at 1,500 feet above the alternate airport under standard temperature conditions.
Each person computing fuel required for the purposes of this subpart shall consider the following:
(a) Wind and other weather conditions forecast.
(b) Anticipated traffic delays.
(c) One instrument approach and possible missed approach at destination.
(d) Any other conditions that may delay landing of the aircraft.
You have head winds forecasted, do you expect weahter detours, do you expect ATC delays? Add that to your fuel BEFORE RESERVES.
The reserves are for things that go worse than forecasted or expected.
Note that, for the purpose of this regulation, the departure, destination and alternate airports are the only airports that count. It doesn't make any distinction for flights that overflight suitable airports every about 1/2 hour or flights that will have actually nowhere else to land if needed.
This rule is designed to give only a very tiny chance that you run out of fuel before landing at your destination or alternate airports. In other words, this rule was created with a "worst case" scenario as you've said(but there can always be a case even worse than that)
Now look at this:
a) No pilot in command may allow a flight to continue toward any airport to which it has been dispatched or released if, in the opinion of the pilot in command, the flight cannot be completed safely; unless, in the opinion of the pilot in command, there is no safer procedure. In that event, continuation toward that airport is an emergency situation as set forth in Sec. 121.557.
I don't know exactly how that works for fuel, but I think you are required to land with 30 minutes of fuel or declare an emergency.
So if you see that you are going to arrive with less than that, you have to request a diversion for a fuel stop. If you are not granted the diversion for example due to trafic, you should declare a fuel emergency and announce that you are going to divert. If a diversion is not available of less safe that landing at the destination with less than 30 minutes of fuel, you must declare a fuel emergency and go for the destination. And note that the emergency must be declared not when you have 30 minutes of fuel, but when you note that you will be landing with less than that.
Now it's important to understand this: There isn't a line up to which the ammount of fuel is safe to do the flight and below it it's unsafe.
Instead, more fuel increases the chances that you will get to your destination with the required reserves, and less fuel reduces those chances, all ina continous scale.
There is, however, a line that draws legal from illegal fuel for the flight.
So 10kg less of fuel might render the flight illegal, while it would not make the flight less safe from a practical point of view (because 10kg is such a small quantity that is cosnumed in a few seconds and can't even be measured with accuracy).
Now, because the fuel reserves are so conservative, most (by large) flights end up landing with quite more than the minimum 30 minutes required, simply because the "worst case" scenario assumed by the regulators almost never become true.
And it's not like AF filed a flight plan to Marrakesh, which is more than 2 hours away of Paris. It filed Bordeaux, roughly half an hour from Paris. Does it makes any difference? Yes.
You need to understand the following:
Say that 2 twin flights departed at the same time time from the same airport, with the only difference being that one carried just enugh fuel to legally file Bourdeaux as destination (with the hope of getting there with enough fuel to switch to Paris) and the other removed enoug payload to complete the needed fuel to legally file Paris (same TOW for both flights).
Both flights then have exactly enough usable fuel to, with the expected conditions, fly to their filed destination, make and IFR approach, 10% of all that, miss the approach, fly to the alternate, and another 30 minutes.
Say that both flights encounter all the same issues (ATC delays, winds different than forecasetd, flight level restrictions, weather detours, etc...)
It is clear that if those issues are benign enough, both flights will land at Paris with at least the required reserve, while if the issues are bad enough, both flights will end up landing at Boredeaux for being not able to stretch it to Paris and land there with the required reserves (regardless of the fact that one flight was legally dispatched to Paris), and finally there will be one range of conditions that are bad enough for the Bordeaux flight to need to land in Bordeaux but good enough that the Paris flight can make it to Paris.
Now, the ammount of fuel loaded in any of those flights is so similar, and so hughe compared with the added 30 minutes cruise, that range of issues needed for each flight landing at their filed airports is very narrow, and hence the chance of that happening is very small. Most likely, both flights will end up landing in Bordeaux or both in Paris.
The probability to have a different outcome in each flight (one landing at Bordeaux and the other at Paris) would increase if the distance from both cities were greater (like with Makarresh, which is 4 times farther from Paris).
So (I'm going to invent some numbers that look "reasonable" to me) say that AF sells the plane in a way that, on average, 75% of the times the plane can be loaded with enough fuel to file for Paris, and that in the other 25% they file for Bordeaux with the hope that they can later switch to paris becasue no so much of the reserves are used.
Further say that, in those cases where the Bordeaux strategy is used, 95% of the time the actual landing airport would be either Bordeaux or Paris regardless of the strategy used (file Bordeaux or remove payload), with a 5% of the flights filed for Bordeaux that actually land at Bordeaux when they would have been able to reach paris have they left just enough payload on the ground to add just enough fuel to make Paris a legal filed destination.
That means that, on average, 1% of the flights would end up making what you call an unfair fuel stop, and causing the customers a not so terrible disservice of arriving an hour or two late (not so terrible compared to not taking some persons or packages on the plane at all, at least for those customers that would be much worse).
I say that's a reasonable effort from AF to prevent a fuel stop in a what should have been a non-stop flight. You can disagree and say that AF is not doing enough, but I say that it's a valid decision for AF.
Therefore, to make a significant diversion around weather results in the worst-case scenario. I call that a dangerous element of pressure introduced into the decision process.
If the culture is not that, or if the culture is such that in normal flights the pressure is already too much, then the problem is not what you call "the loophole", it's the safety culture, and a safety problem already with or without the "loophole".
And about the gray zones you mentioned, those gray zones always exist, and it's the pilot judgment (strongly affected by training and company culture) that makes of each gray a black or a white. Decisions to fly through some mild weather (say green radar returns) when a detour would have been even better from a safety point of view are made everyday.
Not always the correct decision is the safest decision. The decision, though, has to be at least safe enough and legal (not the same thing). I don't want to bring my ironing list of "safety improvements" again, jut just to name one, if the take-off weight is limmited by the runway length, removing just enough weight to make a legal take-off is legal and safe enough, but removing even more weight to have for example some runway margin for a V1 cut would be undoubtly safer (and more expensive).
Yes, absolutely, without question. Ask any passenger this question and they will agree. Passenger airlines must give priority to passenger service because they position themselves to consumers as passenger airlines and create their brand value in this way.
Most airlines do take cargo too. For example, Aerolineas Argentinas and Austral have always had a cargo company called JetPack, and I've never seen a JetPack plane, so it doesn't take any effort to figure where are they taking the cargo.
If you booked a 7-day vacation cruise from Portland to Juneau and it laid up in an industrial port in Seattle for a day to take on drilling equipment, wouldn't you feel a bit gipped?
[/quote]If airlines want to give pax and freight equal priority, they need to advertise the service as such.[/quote]
Again I disagree. Just not advertising that pax will have priority over cargo is enough.
Now, from a shipper point of view, if I was shipping cargo and needed it to be there on time, I would send it with an air-freight oriented service like FedEx, DHL
I am saying: give priority to passenger service, provide adequate fuel to reach the destination in unfavorable conditions, then take on all the cargo you can. And that a seat purchased is a seat now owned on that flight by the passenger.
Provide adequate fuel to reach the destination in "reasonable" unfavorable conditions, then take all the payload you can. The probelm si what if the conditions are more unfavorable?
You say "put as much fuel as needed to cope with the more unfavorable conditons and leave as much paylod as needed off", and that's a valid decision.
My claim is that "leave fuel off without compromising safety and in a way that barely reduces the chances to reach the intended destination without an additional stop" is another valid decision.
That you don't like it is another matter.
And if that was done in a way that it compromised safety, then that's yet another matter.
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