Air France 447 - On topic only!

[3WE]

The first leaks, reported by Le Figaro in France, are that the data are pointing squarely to pilot error.

There are several explanations for this, not the least of which is the press is trying to encourage a quick release of information to dispel swirling rumors.

There is also the possibility that something rather egregious took place in the cockpit that overshadowed what we think was the principle factor (the airspeed problems), something like the Colgan accident. That's where I'm putting my early money.

Regarding this post and a few others where "The aircraft / Airbus is not at fault", that might lean things back in the direction of terrorism.

[Jpmkam]

Well done BEA!
They issued a press release just to slam the newspaper Le Figaro (still just in French).

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....mai2011.fr.php

Glad they shot down that rumored report. I'm sure they will have a preliminary report available in the weeks ahead.

[Fear_of_Flying]

Well done BEA!
They issued a press release just to slam the newspaper Le Figaro (still just in French).

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....mai2011.fr.php

I would say more that the game is afoot. BEA is telling us to wait for an interim report. Le Figaro isn't quite willing to wait that long, given the fact there are probably people right this minute who have a pretty good idea of what happened. They forced BEA to "clear up" the misconception caused by the newspaper.

Bloomberg specifies that "no new technical issues" were discovered in the first sweep of data, which is typically something we hear early on as operators need to know whether or not there is a safety issue at hand.

Sensationalism or the press doing its job? Expect more leaks soon (or pre-emptive releases of information)...

[Evan]

Regarding this post and a few others where "The aircraft / Airbus is not at fault", that might lean things back in the direction of terrorism.

A French newspaper is reporting that the CVR revealed that a terrorist somehow smuggled ball lightning onto the plane in a bowling ball bag (there is a small bowling alley downstairs on the A330), and then unleashed it causing the fin to separate due to cheap crackerbox composites. Let's see what the BEA has to say about that.

[Spectator]

A French newspaper is reporting that the CVR revealed that a terrorist somehow smuggled ball lightning onto the plane in a bowling ball bag (there is a small bowling alley downstairs on the A330), and then unleashed it causing the fin to separate due to cheap crackerbox composites. Let's see what the BEA has to say about that.

I think a terrorist hid in the front wheel well. Then when they were well out over the ocean, he stuck a finger in the port pitot, and stretched until he could get a toe into the starboard pitot, hence the airspeed messages and the resulting crash...

[mawheatley]

Well done BEA!
They issued a press release just to slam the newspaper Le Figaro (still just in French).

http://www.bea.aero/fr/enquetes/vol....mai2011.fr.php

If anyone's interested, here's the Google translation:

According to an article in Le Figaro on the evening of Monday, May 16, 2011, the "first elements extracted from the black boxes would put Airbus out of the accident on the A330, Flight 447, which killed 216 passengers and 12 crew members on 1 June 2009.

Tribute to sensationalism by publishing unconfirmed information while exploiting the data flight recorder has just begun is an affront to the respect of passengers and crew members died and causes trouble among the families of victims who have already undergone many announcement effects. The BEA said that, as part of its mission as the authority for safety investigation, only he can communicate on the progress of the investigation. Thus, any information about the investigation from another source is null and void if it has not been confirmed by the BEA.

The collection of all data contained in records voice and flight parameters gives us today is virtually certain that all light will be shed on this incident.

Investigators will now have to analyze and validate various information. This is a long and painstaking and the BEA has already announced he will not issue an interim report before the summer.

At this stage of investigation, no conclusion can be drawn.

[Evan]

More probing headaches for the A330:

http://avherald.com/h?article=432f4c17/0000&opt=0

Now I'm REALLY interested to see the TAT/SAT plots from the AF447 FDR.

[Alexandre]

I would say more that the game is afoot. BEA is telling us to wait for an interim report. Le Figaro isn't quite willing to wait that long, given the fact there are probably people right this minute who have a pretty good idea of what happened. They forced BEA to "clear up" the misconception caused by the newspaper.

Bloomberg specifies that "no new technical issues" were discovered in the first sweep of data, which is typically something we hear early on as operators need to know whether or not there is a safety issue at hand.

Sensationalism or the press doing its job? Expect more leaks soon (or pre-emptive releases of information)...

Interesting to notice that le Figaro is owned by Serge Dassault the owner of Dassault Aviation (you know Falcon Aircraft, Rafale, Mirage and so and so since 1918 ).

[Theoddkiwi]

More probing headaches for the A330:

http://avherald.com/h?article=432f4c17/0000&opt=0

Now I'm REALLY interested to see the TAT/SAT plots from the AF447 FDR.

I am not sure sure they will be relevant. After all the incident reported said that airspeed and altitude remained valid and the aircraft remained in Normal Law.
Beside which i don't think there were any ACARS messages referring to TAT probe problems.

I am surprised at the number of probe issues the 330 seems to have had. I mean probes from one aircraft type to another wouldn't differ much. Hell all the TAT probes i've seen look pretty much identical. There doesnt seem top be systemic issues on other aircraft types.

[Black Ram]

The BEA criticizes Le Figaro's actions, maybe rightfully so. However, to me it seems the BEA are somewhat careful in their wording. Nowhere do they directly dismiss the claims in the Le Figaro article.

[Gabriel]

The BEA criticizes Le Figaro's actions, maybe rightfully so. However, to me it seems the BEA are somewhat careful in their wording. Nowhere do they directly dismiss the claims in the Le Figaro article.

Except, maybe

At this stage of investigation, no conclusion can be drawn

Which I guess includes the conclusions that it was pilot error and that the airplane had nothing to do with it.

[EconomyClass]

Instead of "belly flop", what would be the best way, IN COMMON ENGLISH, to give a capsule description? There may be a better choice of words, but what I've read in the past wouldn't make any sense to any layman. I'm guessing the writer just wanted to make it clear the plane wasn't entering the water noise first as some might imagine.

Somewhere way back, I read an estimate of a huge number of G's on passenger bodies when the plane hit the water. I wonder what happens to a body strapped into a seat when it instantaneously suffers a G-force like that. Can't be pretty.

[Gabriel]

Instead of "belly flop", what would be the best way, IN COMMON ENGLISH, to give a capsule description? There may be a better choice of words, but what I've read in the past wouldn't make any sense to any layman. I'm guessing the writer just wanted to make it clear the plane wasn't entering the water noise first as some might imagine.

Crashed with the wings level and the nose slightly up?

Somewhere way back, I read an estimate of a huge number of G's on passenger bodies when the plane hit the water. I wonder what happens to a body strapped into a seat when it instantaneously suffers a G-force like that. Can't be pretty.

Apparently, based on the damage in the parts and bodies, the vertical acceleration was higher than the horizontal one (which was already high enough as for to tear the fin). That most likely means fatal spinal compression injury, strapped or not. based on the state of some floating parts (toilet room, cart...), I don't think that the vertical acceleration was enough to "destroy" the body, so probably you wouldn't tell much just by looking at it. On the other hand, if that didn't kill you, an horizontal acceleration high enough to tear the fin is probably enough to tear the seats from the floor, and that wouldn't be nice. Neither you with your seat flying forward until you crash against something ahead of you, nor the people and seats behind you flying towards you.

[EconomyClass]

Can't figure out why Le Figaro would be so eager to absolve Airbus. I know its a conservative newspaper, but really, don't they have any fear of having egg on their face? Or do they just do it to stir up controversy for its own sake? I wonder if media competition is as strong in France as in the USA. Really, it sounds like a tabloid story.

[Black Ram]

Le Figaro's response to BEA's statement:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2011/05/17/01016-20110517ARTFIG00426-af-447-la-piste-d-une-erreur-de-l-equipage-air-france.php

Google Translation:

This is the best scenario imaginable. Five days after their arrival in Paris, the black boxes from Flight 447 already issue their top secrets. According to government sources contacted by Le Figaro , the first elements extracted from the Digital Flight Data Recorder (FDR), the flight data recorder, seem to the European manufacturer harmless in the accident scenario.

Mechanical or electronic elements would not be affected. This information was revealed Monday by Le Figaro , was soon to be indirectly confirmed by Airbus , which was sent Monday night to Tuesday an "Accident Information Telex" in all its client companies in the world.

The manufacturer shall indicate the voice of Yannick Malinge, head of security, "at this stage of preliminary analysis of the Digital Flight Data Recorder, Airbus has no immediate recommendation to its operators. Updates will be provided as soon as significant items that Airbus will be available or will be authorized to issue more information in accordance with the investigation. " Translation: nothing in the initial analysis of black boxes and gives no reason for Airbus to alert its customers of any technical fault of the A330 or any change in procedure. "Airbus has been approached over the weekend by investigators on the BEA flight parameters and technical details found in the FDR, told the Figaro an expert on aviation safety. Airbus top management should now have a fairly clear idea of what happened. "

This suggests that the investigation of the BEA is turning more to Air France, its procedures and its crew. The study by the summer of 2009 trajectories of the devices on the zone, had already floated this question: Why AF 447 he continued his journey on a straight path, while other flights, including several of Air France had an avoidance, that is to say, have overcome the danger? This trajectory looks like a pilot error or appreciation can be explained by several hypotheses: an insufficient number in the cockpit, a problem of radar or carrying enough fuel to get around the area. Once the aircraft in the area of cumulonimbus clouds, it is whether the crew was trained to cope with this difficult situation and whether the company procedures were adapted. All these elements will be determined through an analysis of the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), the second black box, which identifies human factors and hence the errors.

Final Report on the accident
Contacted by Le Figaro , neither Air France Airbus did not wish to comment on any information. For its part, the BEA has prepared no formal denial of information. The office indicated that "this stage of investigation, no conclusion can be drawn." It also accuses Le Figaro to "sacrifice to sensationalism" and "stir up trouble among the families of victims who have had many effects ads. These have recently been faced with the announcement of an attempt to trace the sixty body still in the wreckage of the aircraft by 4000 meters deep, before the transaction is canceled. Last year, they were also pinned high hopes on the third research phase of BEA in the South Atlantic, which has proved a total fiasco. The investigators had indeed scoured an area located 40 nautical miles from the last known position of the device with a partially inadequate equipment, while the wreckage was finally found to 5 nautical miles from the last known position. It is ultimately the fourth phase funded and organized by Air France and Airbus, which has helped find the wreck on April 3.

One outcome was quite unexpected as fast a few months ago. The wreck of the AF 447 was discovered there just six weeks. "Everything that happened since the discovery of the wreck: the location of black boxes, their rise and the fact they are still fully legible after spending two years by 4000 meters deep, is totally amazing," recalls government source. The readability of flight recorders was not acquired after a period of 23 months by 4000 meters. The BEA will be able to study all the parameters and submit a final report on the accident later this year. This means that the disaster that was fast becoming one of the most mysterious of the last ten years, will be fully decoded and understood.