Polish President and wife killed in Tu-154 crash

[Northwester]

10:29:29.8 PIC - Ask if the Russians arrived.
10:29:34.9 FO - Have the Russians arrived?
10:29:40.0 Yak-40 - IL two times approached and then left.

[Northwester]

I know, me too...

But come on, stuff like this is just too good to let pass:



I mean that is fantastic. Where does Northwester get his material? You have to keep going with this Northwester, please.

These are opinions that you can find in different publications in Poland. Not my opinions so stop with this nonsense.

[Northwester]

(One of my sources of crazy ideas)

Merely A Conspiracy Theory?

Conspiracy theories abound. Looking at the Katyn Forest massacre, the behavior of other countries guilty of similar genocides, the KGB’s history of killings, genocides, murders and assassinations to rid itself of rivals, critics or anyone who has become inconvenient or a vocal opponent, it is no wonder the Poles – and others – see the heavy Russian hand behind the crash. There was the Soviet genocide in the 1920s when they starved nearly 20 million Ukrainians to death, killing millions of their own people throughout the life of the USSR. So what is another hundred in a crash to get rid of those pesky Poles, and their temerity at seeking, in Smolensk, to rub in the face of Russia some sordid account of a wartime massacre? And it was payback for Poland’s alliance with NATO. For many of us from the intelligence community we well remember the Soviet practice of manipulating navigational beacons to lure American military planes into Soviet territory to be shot down, “for violating sacred Soviet airspace.” They thought nothing of shooting down Korean Air Boeing 747, knowing it held several hundred civilian passengers. The Russian solution now is to make it go away quickly – as quickly as that ill-fated commemoration will be forgotten.
Policy-wise, the Russians saw our decision to grovel before them (the "reset", the giving up of ballistic missile defense after we promised the Czechs and Poles, our acquiescence to their activities in Georgia and Ukraine, our begging for their non-help on Iran, et al.) as a green light to do what they did with the plane crash. They concluded we would say nothing -- and we didn't.
And what, if anything, can America do? Nothing. Their plate is full with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a vast ecological disaster unfolding in the Gulf, North Korea starting the next war between the Koreas, and at home, unrest over the illegal invasion of America by Latinos hiding under the misapplied term of “immigrant,” a failing economy, and other political tsunamis. Besides, strategic utility isn’t reserved only for Turks. Aren’t the Russians helping in America’s war on terrorism? That means American outrage and concerns over the Polish ‘accident’ will have to be as hollow and toothless as Russia’s ‘investigations’ to solve the crash mystery. The Poles, however, see this as Yalta II, i.e., another sell-out by the US. Poland is seething over this; the Obamisti may think this will fade away, but the Poles and the rest of Central Europe know better. For them this is a monumental betrayal.
Life – as is history – is unfair. The Poles are in the same spot as the Armenians, the Somalis, the Tutsi, the American Indians, the Incas, the Eskimos, and others. Crucial alliances trump acknowledgement of prior bad acts. I ignore your genocides, you ignore mine. The guilty get a free pass. Or, in the argot of modern TV sitcoms: Nobody Talks, Everybody Walks. And then there is the old KGB saying, "It is no accident, Comrade!"
By Gene Poteat
* Gene Poteat is an electrical engineer (The Citadel) and a retired CIA scientific intelligence officer. He served abroad in London, Scandinavia, the Middle East and Asia. He is president of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO), writes and lectures on intelligence matters and teaches at The Institute of World Politics graduate school in Washington; the IWP is scheduled to award Gene Poteat an honorary doctoral degree on June 5. He may be reached at [email protected].

[Northwester]

And one more:

April 12, 2010, 12:30 – 14:30 - An interview with Mr. Pavel Plusnin [Smolensk Air Traffic Controller] interviewed by Col. Ireneusz Szelag, the Polish Military Prosecutor’s Office:
Ireneusz Szelag: “What type of airport is Severny?”

Pavel Plusnin: “The Severny airport is part of the [Russian] national aviation establishment, and is under jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.”
Ireneusz Szelag: “Based on your interaction with the crew of the TU-154, on April 10, 2010, how would you assess their command of the Russian language? Was it sufficient enough to correctly understand the commands issued by the air traffic controller[s] during the radio communications? [Was it sufficient enough] to assure the safety of the flight?”
Pavel Plusnin: “Based on my interaction with the crew of the TU-154 aircraft, on April 10, 2010, I reached the conclusion that the crew had an adequate command of the Russian language. This level [of understanding of the Russian language] was sufficient to correctly understand commands given by the flight controller[s] during the radio communications, in order to assure the safety of the flight.”
Ireneusz Szelag: “What were the weather conditions on April 10, 2010 [in Smolensk, Russia], during the landing attempt of the TU-154?”
Pavel Plusnin: “Around 2 - 3 minutes before the approach, … the visibility - in my opinion - was probably around 800-1,000 meters [ 2624 - 3280 feet ...] According to the report of the meteorologist, the cloud cover was at around 80 meters [262 feet]”.

[Myndee]

Northwester,

Please submit a detailed paragraph of what you believe happened from start to finish and WHY.

Thanks.

[Peter_K]

But he was inquired, there was an initiation of prosecution involved, that's my point.

NO, there wasn't. In Polish legal system anybody can write a prosecutor if he thinks that the law is being broken. Prosecutor is obliged to review every claim and reply to it.
Cases can be rejected based on the initial evaluation of the claim or after an inquiry/investigation. Even if the investigation is initiated, prosecutor can reject the case based on the outcome if the investigation. During the process the person is at no time viewed as accused or a suspect. In this case it was rejected without an investigation being initiated.
If in your opinion there was an initiation of prosecution involved, then so it is during every routine traffic stop. After all the cop will usually ask for cars' and drivers' documents to check if everything is in order.

[Peter_K]

I learned some Czech, which is closest to Polish,

What Evan doesn't know, Evan will make up. Czech is not closest to Polish. Slovakian and couple of other Slavic languages are.

[Peter_K]

And his psychologist, as he had reportedly suffered great emotional trauma from being called a sissy in front of his crew. Well, his first officer was no sissy boy (note the past tense)...

Good Lord! How do you come up with those things? This is not America where everybody runs to their therapist for psychotropic prescription every time life gives them a little challenge. You are talking about an officer who climbed the ladder from the bottom. Going through the basic training, I'm sure he was called a sissy many times.

Save those melodramatic posts for your beloved TSA agents who suffers so much trauma feeling peoples' crotches that sometime they miss a loaded gun in a carry on.

[Evan]

Good Lord! How do you come up with those things? This is not America where everybody runs to their therapist for psychotropic prescription every time life gives them a little challenge. You are talking about an officer who climbed the ladder from the bottom. Going through the basic training, I'm sure he was called a sissy many times.

Save those melodramatic posts for your beloved TSA agents who suffers so much trauma feeling peoples' crotches that sometime they miss a loaded gun in a carry on.

Sorry you feel that way Peter, but he did seek psychiatric help after the incident and testified to having been deeply affected by the humiliation. He was human, in other words.

What Evan doesn't know, Evan will make up. Czech is not closest to Polish. Slovakian and couple of other Slavic languages are.

You're splitting some mighty fine hairs there.

[3WE]

I've played Microsoft flight simulator some, and have put in IMC conditions and been flyng around and one time, I let my attention lapse for a brief moment and flew into the ground.

Also, I've read some aviation magazines, and I guess that a couple of times, dudes have flown into the ground while trying to bust minimums on instrument approaches.

Has anyone considered if this might be another one of those types of crashes?

[Gabriel]

Yes Mr Bubtah.

[Northwester]

Northwester,

Please submit a detailed paragraph of what you believe happened from start to finish and WHY.

Thanks.

If I was going to write a detailed paragraph about what happened from start to finish I would need several pages, so I will just give you an outline:
- the weather conditions were changing rapidly, the initial info that Yak-40 received was visibility 4km, then it changed to 1k, then 400m. According to Plusnin 2-3 min before approach it was 1000/80. I don't know if the crew received that info but they decided to try one approach just in case and then go to an alternate.
- during the approach there were problems with navigation, the info from ATC was off, middle marker signal was off, I suspect there was also a problem with the GPS signal - as a result they had a reason to believe they were 1k closer to the RWY than they really were.
- despite the FDR data I suspect that the approach was stabilized, about 4.5k from the RWY the F/O says 2-8-0 (280 km/h) while the FDR shows 320 km/h. Something not right with the time scale, I suppose. I am more willing to trust the F/O reading from his instrument than the flight data.
- at 100m both PIC and F/O call for GA, the Nav says "all within normal range" (that means altitude, distance, course, etc.) which also means reaching the MM. But they are over 2k from the RWY.
- now something strange is happening, despite the GA call the plane continues to descend rapidly. Normally you would say that there was no intention to land - they would have turned off the AP. But the plane is not following the straight line. Despite the AP engaged and no one touching the control column the trajectory is gradually changing. There is still the open question about the automatic GA, if it was supposed to work or not. But the behaviour of the crew is strange - the Nav is counting down to virtually 0, no one says anything, the plane gets below RWY elevation. I can only assume some temporary malfunction that makes the plane impossible to control.

Theoretically two scenarios are possible:
- they reach 100m, receive the MM signal, decide to GA, right before the execution of GA notice the searchlights (placed near the MM - false location), turn off the AP, start landing procedure, find themselves in the ravine instead of the RWY, crash
- reach 100m, receive MM signal, decide to GA, press the button, no reaction (supposes to work), Nav "all within normal range", try manual controls - no luck, the plane is descending too low to recover (wrong place - no RWY)

Both scenarios assume that they are deceived as to their position, one assumes false searchlights, the other one some kind of mechanical malfunction (several months of maintenance work in Russia ?). We are still missing some info, there might be other options possible. But both scenarios assume altered flight data. None should have realistically happened without receiving the MM signal first. Both are still speculative.

As to the question WHY, please read my posts # 1232 and #1393.

One side question: what was a Russian version of AWACS plane (IL-76) doing there shortly before the arrival of Tu-154?

[Peter_K]

Sorry you feel that way Peter, but he did seek psychiatric help after the incident and testified to having been deeply affected by the humiliation. He was human, in other words.

You like bending facts to fit your theories, don't ya?

He did not seek psychiatric help. Only sources that mention it are blogs and discussion forums. If he did, his medical would have been suspended and that never happened.
He did not testify anything. At most he gave press interviews.
Let's not forget that he became a national hero for his actions. Hardly a condition that would cause a chronic depression.

[Myndee]

Northwester,

So what you are saying is (besides the US sucks) is that the Russians manipulated the nav beacons because, either a) they were getting back at the Poles for policies they disagreed with or b) because they could, just like they did during the Cold War. The reason being is that they wanted to make some kind of point and steal intelligence that the Polish head of state was carrying.

Am I on the right track as far as your beliefs?

[Northwester]

Northwester,

So what you are saying is (besides the US sucks) is that the Russians manipulated the nav beacons because, either a) they were getting back at the Poles for policies they disagreed with or b) because they could, just like they did during the Cold War. The reason being is that they wanted to make some kind of point and steal intelligence that the Polish head of state was carrying.

Am I on the right track as far as your beliefs?

It is a little bit more complicated than that. It is a struggle for survival and for basic security for both Russia and Poland. If you look at how the borders have changed in this part of Europe in the last 100 years, you will understand how unstable and volatile this region is. Heck, Poland did not even exist then, big part of it was Russia. Just about 20 years ago the borders of the Soviet Empire were in the middle of Germany, about 1200 miles from Moscow. Now Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland are in NATO. If Ukraine and Belarus were to join them, NATO tanks would be standing 250 miles from Moscow. That would be scary for Russia. They will do everything to prevent it. They will exert their influence to the west trying to have a direct control or influence creation of friendly governments in Baltic countries, Belarus, Ukraine and Poland. They consider this area their sphere of influence and their security buffer zone. The similar is valid for Poland. Independent Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine would create a vital buffer zone for independent Poland. This struggle for survival justifies any means. There is a lot more to it, but I will just add the energy security. Russia wields its influence in Europe by being a major oil and natural gas supplier. Poland is trying to tap its shale gas deposits as soon as possible. Kaczynski and his group were steering Polish politics in a direction contrary to the Russian interests. A big part of Polish military intelligence establishment was educated in Soviet schools and still pulls a lot of strings in Poland. They are Russian friendly. Kaczynski was trying to change it. His anti Russian stance was well known. Russians knew that they would get away with it, so why not remove that irritaing obstacle. After all Russians did not have any problem trying to eliminate (kill) Yushtshenko, Ukrainian president who was pushing Ukraine towards Europe and NATO. His survival was a miracle.

A flight to Smolensk was a perfect opportunity. Kaczynski and many of his prominent supporters were on the plane. And Smolensk is an ideal location for it. A military airdrome, a site of several military units, amongst them an electronic warfare regiment (312th Elint Regiment (OSNAZ)), and a test site for Russian NIKA project. They knew they would control the investigation, and with a half way credible cover up and proper PR, no one would move a finger to question it. It is not in anyone's interest to challenge Russia. So that's probably why they were quite sloppy in their cover up and there are so many gaps in the investigation and the report. They don't care. Good propaganda work and everyone buys it. Who cares about the inconsistencies in the report, in the flight data, or not releasing the wreckage and black boxes to Poland. It does not matter. US, perefectly aware of what happened, did not react so all is cool.

The harvesting of intelligence data here was secondary. Just an opportunity.

Eugene Poteat is right on in his assesment of the incident. And just look at his credentials:
S. Eugene (Gene) Poteat is a retired senior CIA Scientific Intelligence Officer. He is President of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). He was educated as an electrical engineer and physicist. He holds a Masters in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from IWP. His career in intelligence included work with U-2 and SR-71 class of aircraft and various space and naval reconnaissance systems. He also managed the CIA's worldwide network of monitoring sites. He holds patents on covert communications techniques. His CIA assignments included the Directorate of Science and Technology, the National Reconnaissance Office, Technical Director of the Navy's Special Programs Office and Executive Director of the Intelligence Research and Development Council. He served abroad in London, Scandinavia, the Middle East and Asia. He received the CIA's Medal of Merit and the National Reconnaissance Office's Meritorious Civilian Award for his technological innovations.