Sukhoi Superjet missing in Indonesia

[Gabriel]

Despite the pet theory that seems to be going around some discussion forums - that the pilot was weaving between mountain tops and showing off the maneuverability of the aircraft all the while with a party going on in the cockpit and all warning systems turned off - I just don't see that as the most reasonable conclusion to draw based on the sequence of events as we know them so far.

Instead, ...

[Evan]

Until we have any hints that support any of these theories, we need to do as is said at more mature aviation forums and...

Where is this mythical and incredibly uninteresting More Mature Aviation Forum? Can't be pprune (15 pages of parlour talk and counting already). Hmmm...

EGPWS needs a terrain database and a 3D nav system. Were they ok?

Are regional jets always equipped with a worldwide EGPWS (or TAWS) database? Is it possible that this demonstration aircraft did not have data for the region?

[Gabriel]

1) Are regional jets always equipped with a worldwide EGPWS (or TAWS) database? 2) Is it possible that this demonstration aircraft did not have data for the region?

1) I don't know.
2) For almost every question that starts with "is it possible" the answer is "yes". How likely that that was the case? I don't know.

[3WE]

Don't forget these ones (yours, I believe):
and

Indeed

I also speculate.

But after a number of divergent, but plausible theories have been presented, it's time to stop pushing them until there's some genuine evidence to suggest one or the other.

Right now, we know that the plane crashed because it hit the mountain.

[Fear_of_Flying]

Indeed

I also speculate.

But after a number of divergent, but plausible theories have been presented, it's time to stop pushing them until there's some genuine evidence to suggest one or the other.

Right now, we know that the plane crashed because it hit the mountain.

I, for one, would still like to learn more about the various scenarios and how they might have played out - for example, under what circumstances could a navigation error of this sort have occurred if, as ErwinS suggested, they started their turn too soon? The discussion has been constructive, and it's been great to hear from experienced members as well as pilots such as snydersnapshots.

So far, there has been no mention of ball lightning or terrorism, and this thread is a far cry from the 100+ pages of paranoid conspiracy theories seen in the Polish President thread even though we've known what happened there forever. Given that the wreckage of this crash is still smouldering, I really think it's ok to still be talking about possible causes. But since you've decided on page 5 that speculation is no longer useful, having posted your own speculation on page 2, I guess you'll be missing out...

[MCM]

The part that intregues me is that they were doing a descending orbit, supposedly well clear of the terrain, and then have somehow found themselves back at the hills. The question will have to be asked as to if they thought themselves high, and were doing a descending orbit to get back to the airfield, or if they were trying to get down for some other purpose.

The other question I would like to know is if the crew believed they were under radar control, and that the radar controller was responsible for terrain separation? In some parts of the world, a descent clearance such as this would require the controller to guarantee seperation, in other parts of the world it is up to the pilot to provide that seperation. Were they aware that they would not be given terrain seperation, and then just bungled their way back towards hills without realising it?

As always very sad.

And Evan, yes it is always possible that they did not have updated EGPWS data for the region, or that the data in that area was not complete. There are still very large areas of the world that have not been accurately mapped for any purpose, and grid lowest safe altitudes (as discussed before by Snydershapshots) are actually given as appropoximates! Being so close to Jakarta I would suspect that is unlikely though.

[James Bond]

[Evan]

The part that intregues me is that they were doing a descending orbit, supposedly well clear of the terrain, and then have somehow found themselves back at the hills. The question will have to be asked as to if they thought themselves high, and were doing a descending orbit to get back to the airfield, or if they were trying to get down for some other purpose.

The other question I would like to know is if the crew believed they were under radar control, and that the radar controller was responsible for terrain separation? In some parts of the world, a descent clearance such as this would require the controller to guarantee seperation, in other parts of the world it is up to the pilot to provide that seperation. Were they aware that they would not be given terrain seperation, and then just bungled their way back towards hills without realising it?

Aha. It does appear that they were conducting the entire demonstration flight safely within the Jakarta TMA. I suppose, being foreign to the region, they might think that ATC was watching over them. What is the custom in Russia I wonder. When Polish 101 continued down below MSA, weren't they directly ordered to climb by the radar controller?

And Evan, yes it is always possible that they did not have updated EGPWS data for the region, or that the data in that area was not complete. There are still very large areas of the world that have not been accurately mapped for any purpose, and grid lowest safe altitudes (as discussed before by Snydershapshots) are actually given as appropoximates! Being so close to Jakarta I would suspect that is unlikely though.

Not to mention that Mt Sakar has a bad reputation for eating airplanes. But I have read that regional jets might only have regional mapping data (from a less-than-reliable source), and, this being a regional jet assigned to Jakarta for only a short demonstration mission, might have data only for the region where it was designed to operate.

Doesn't explain the real issue though, how they got into terrain proximity in the first place...

[Evan]

Indeed

I also speculate.

But after a number of divergent, but plausible theories have been presented, it's time to stop pushing them until there's some genuine evidence to suggest one or the other.

Save us your scorn 3WE. Solving the mystery isn't the only reason for speculation. We also learn a lot just from discussing possibilities, and it's an interesting, intelligent (thus far) and educational conversation. And Dr Binienda hasn't shown up yet.

Anyway, we'll miss ya.

[Fear_of_Flying]

From http://www.news24.com/World/News/Pil...press-20120514

Jakarta - The pilot of a Russian passenger jet that crashed into a mountain near Jakarta last week performed manoeuvres to impress potential buyers during one of its two flights in Indonesia, a newspaper reported on Monday.

The secretary general of the Indonesian National Air Carrier Association, Tengku Burhanuddin, said the Sukhoi Superjet 100's pilot pushed the aircraft to show its capacity to potential buyers during the first demonstration flight on Wednesday, the day of the crash, The Jakarta Post reported.

"They wanted to prove how good the Superjet 100 was," the Post quoted Burhanuddin, a passenger on the first flight, as saying. "That is what people do when they look for potential customers."

That first flight ended without incident, but the Sukhoi slammed into Mount Salak during the second demonstration flight. All 45 people on board were presumed dead.

Burhanuddin told the Post that on the first flight, the pilot descended from cruising altitude, a manoeuvre that allowed passengers to get a closer look at the ground in conditions resembling a conventional landing.

"It was a fantastic ride," he said. "As a person who loves aircraft, I can say that I still felt comfortable sitting in the passenger seat."

The article goes on to say "Too Early to Speculate". Hmm. I would be less surprised now, knowing that human nature is that he would try to make the same run both times, to learn that his motivation for the descent was in fact to get in closer. Still hard to believe, but maybe a bit less so today.

[Evan]

Burhanuddin told the Post that on the first flight, the pilot descended from cruising altitude, a manoeuvre that allowed passengers to get a closer look at the ground in conditions resembling a conventional landing.

Descended where?

[snydersnapshots]

These were posted on the internet from 2009 (hopefully you have something more relevant):

I looked for the charts this morning and could only find charts for the larger airport in Jakarta, so the approach plates won't help us. The arrival chart, however, was pretty much identical to the chart you have, though it had a 2008 date on it. I looked the current chart over and didn't find any altitudes listed on it either.

[Dmitry]

Latest news. Some things begin to clear up

It turned out that originally RA-97005 had been prepared for the demonstration flight in Asian countries. It was RA-97005 which was demonstrated in Kazakhstan and Pakistan (remember its photos in Sergey Dolya's blog, they were here not by chance http://sergeydolya.livejournal.com/465758.html) But in Pakistan, something happened to the airplane (problems with engine), and it was returned back to Russia.
Of course, nobody was willing to cancel well planned promotional tour because of the technical embarrassment, so they sent another aircraft with tail number 97004, which hadn't been originally prepared for a demonstration flight. The crew was professional but again it was out of the clear sky for them that they had to fly there. Moreover, the head engineer for test flights of RA-97004 Mr. Morgunov was out (on his leave) and another man from RA-97005 was sent to Indonesia (and died there) - a person who couldnt know 97004 well.

http://www.mk.ru/incident/article/2012/05/12/702770-v-indoneziyu-uletel-sovsem-drugoy-superdzhet.html

[Evan]

Of course, nobody was willing to cancel well planned promotional tour because of the technical embarrassment, so they sent another aircraft with tail number 97004, which hadn't been originally prepared for a demonstration flight.

...and it lacked GPS mapping data for the region... ??? ...or even proper charts... ???

What special preparations (other than a flight plan and some briefing on hazardous issues) are needed for a demonstration flight?

[Gabriel]

...and it lacked GPS mapping data for the region... ??? ...or even proper charts... ???

What special preparations (other than a flight plan and some briefing on hazardous issues) are needed for a demonstration flight?

Needed?
Proper planning.

Required?
Not much. It's a private non-revenue flight. Just the minimum planning that I need to fly the Tomahawk (wich includes the availability of current charts for the zone).
Depending the case, even filling a fligth plan could be not required.