Second Turnback This Week Due to Unruly Pax

[TeeVee]

evan wont admit it but a universal anything will not be coming along anytime soon. i invested in a company developing a universal flu vaccine. successful stage 1 trials. i bought some more shares. then? stage 2 an utter failure. i only lost a couple of thousand. anyway, let's let evan go one believing that science can conclusively beat mother nature while he wears his mask.

[3WE]

***The flu is a harder thing to target because it mutates much faster, about four times faster that Covid.***

Bullcrap.

Pigweeed mutates an order of magnitude or two less than viruses PERIOD…

And has developed resistance to most of our effective chemistry.

Bugs, Roaches, Rats, Weeds, Bacteria, Viruses…big numbers, high reproductive rates (millions, billions, gillions doesn’t matter)…it’s the SAME mechanism…(and painfully simple math).

Masks, vaccines, pesticides, D-Con; Mother Nature abhors a vacuum…

[Evan]

universal vaccine....hahahaha. science has brought us ANNUAL flu "shots" that have done nothing to end influenza.

TeeVee, science is an ongoing thing, and as such, it is evolving. The mRNA breakthroughs have accelerated this evolution and, ironically, work being done on universal coronavirus vaccines will likely yield universal flu vaccines as well. The problem with current vaccines is that they target protein structures at the 'head' of the virus stalks which are most susceptible to 'antigenic drift' via mutation, whereas vaccine research is now able to direct the immune system to the conserved stalk proteins which are common to a wide number of strains. There are other technologies being developed as well, including those using vector adenoviruses and nanoparticles. The game is to elicit an antigenic response from the parts of these viruses that rarely mutate. And it is being done successfully, in-vitro.

The flu is a harder thing to target because it mutates much faster, about four times faster that Covid. The reason Covid has been able to mutate as often as it has is because of the extremely high number of infections, which could be tempered dramatically if people took responsibility, got the vaccines and wore masks in populated spaces like markets, got tested and self-quarantined when they test positive. Slow down the rate of transmission and you slow down the rate of vaccine escape mutation. Dramatically. Simply 'living with it' and embracing the medieval 'virus is gonna virus' philosophy will only make mutations more common.

Also, the current flu vaccines which rely on lab-incubated inactivated virus have a greater development time and must rely on predictions far in advance. The mRNA technology uses the vaccine recipient’s own gene-transcription and translation machinery to generate the antigen protein, so it should be more agile and therefore less reliant on prediction.

And the flu has a far lower case fatality rate. Covid has also proved to be a much more broadly systemic virus by infecting organs throughout the body including the nervous system. This is why we must take it much more seriously as responsible members of a modern civilization.

[TeeVee]

universal vaccine....hahahaha. science has brought us ANNUAL flu "shots" that have done nothing to end influenza. "universal" vaccines fail repeatedly. have you been wearing a mask your entire life to prevent influenza? it kills tens of thousands every year in the US alone. science has been unable to prevent the common cold, hiv, and 1000's of other viruses.

"immunity" is not the key and hasn't been for some time. survival, however, has been. drug manufacturers dont even use the word immunity anymore in discussing their versions of the vax. they talk in terms of immune response, which is a very different thing.

evan we know your opinion. keep wearing your mask please.

[Evan]

And that doesn't count a s a reliable defense?

Against serious illness, initially, it is a highly reliable defense.

Against infection it is not.

Against long-Covid, it is still unknown.

Masks are a reliable defense against all of
these things.

[Gabriel]

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

That's what I'm hearing. The vaccine seems to produce better long-term cellular immunity. That's the stuff that keeps it out of the lungs and such.

And that doesn't count a s a reliable defense?

[Evan]

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

That's what I'm hearing. The vaccine seems to produce better long-term cellular immunity. That's the stuff that keeps it out of the lungs and such. Definitely idiotic to dodge the vaccine. Also, immensely irresponsible if you live in a modern civilization. Yet we have certain characters who call themselves 'libertarians' who have adopted the idea that said civilization is their entitlement, as opposed to their responsibility. If more of them end badly in this unpleasantness, the cosmic justice is not difficult to recognize.

[Gabriel]

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

[3WE]

Maybe then immunity can replace masking once and for all.

Wanna hear about Group 15 resistance in Amaranth species?

Please send a news release to inform the media that BA.5 is not Deltacron. Unfortunately, the media only uses this forum for its cutting-edge analysis of aviation safety.

However, there’s strong consensus in science that the media likes scary, sexy buzzwords. Good luck.

[Evan]

Announcing “Deltacron” BA.5

I guess we’ll be hearing about more science.

Only if you are following science. Most people are unwilling to, or afraid to.

BA.5 is not Deltacron. Deltacron emerged months ago but never really took off. BA.4 and BA.5 do not appear to settle in the lungs as readily as Delta, although ICU admissions are climbing in Europe with the very high numbers of infections there. Most significantly, these variants easily re-infect those who have had previous Covid illness as well as those with vaccinations, so immunity is not in the cards.

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

The good news (if it works) is that a universal vaccine is being developed, hopefully for the fall. Maybe then immunity can replace masking once and for all.

[3WE]

Announcing “Deltacron” BA.5

I guess we’ll be hearing about more science.

[TeeVee]

You are, of course, reversing the burden of proof. Unless newer research finds otherwise, older research prevails. That is how Science works.

However, here is the most recent:

From a study released on May 18:



Note two things:

- While the citations are indeed from late 2021, the study conclusions are from May of 2022. This indicates that nothing more recent has been presented to refute those late 2021 studies. There is currently no scientific research supporting a reduction in long-covid incidence.
- The rates cited are much higher than 30%. Margins or error have been factored into the current consensus that the rate is around 1 in 3.

Also, it is very important to note that the study finds that 75% of long-covid sufferers were never sick enough to be hospitalized. This indicates that severity is not a driving factor for long Covid and therefore a less severe variant does not equate to a lower expected incidence of long Covid.

Link to the actual study:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media2.fair...te%20Paper.pdf

you are pretty funny. did you actually read this 30 page report (which was NOT peer-reviewed)???

THIS: "this report studies the population of 78,252 patients in the repository who were diagnosed with the U09.9 code from October 1, 2021,to January 31, 2022."

why is this important? because, you know, the virus mutated into its current form, omicron, which is much more transmissible, BUT much less dangerous, not only the disease, but the risk of long covid as well. the group they studied were most likely infected with delta (a much worse variant) or its predecessor (still worse than omicron).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00941-2/fulltext

Key point: "Among omicron cases, 2501 (4.5%) of 56,003 people experienced long COVID and, among delta cases, 4469 (10.8%) of 41,361 people experienced long COVID."

4.5%.

Aside from the above, let me back up several pages of this thread. are you trying to convince us and the world that mask mandates should not have been lifted because the risk (in your mind) has shifted to long covid as opposed to serious illness or death? are you proposing the continuation of masks because you think that if we just suffered a "little bit longer" the virus would disappear, like trump promised it would?

p.s. just to put things into perspective, the report you cited was prepared by a US based health cost watchdog, and was limited to privately insured patients who were given the funky new IDC code. makes me wonder if the UK study isn't more accurate...

[Evan]

What numbers would those be?

The daily reported cases and hospitalization figures. I particularly watch the hospitalization numbers as they give a truer depiction of the current trend in infections. What you see there represents Covid infections from about 5-7 days in the past. So any conclusion that the threat has past must require that many prior days of acceptably low numbers.

[ATLcrew]

If you follow the numbers, you see where we repeatedly make the error of relaxing Covid measures about two weeks too early.

What numbers would those be?

[Evan]

All of which would have been avoided if only we wore mouthdiapers for "a little while longer", right?

Diminished, not entirely avoided. But yes, the current resurgence is the result of populations that can no longer endure even modest hardship or inconvenience in the interests of public health. The pandemic is now a bit less than two and a half years long (it could have been less than two years). The Black Death lasted four years. What a lot of snowflakes we've become.

If you follow the numbers, you see where we repeatedly make the error of relaxing Covid measures about two weeks too early. When it can no longer find a fertile valley of unprotected human hosts, it will subside.

I hope you're taking this seriously. Airline pilot is not a great job for those with chronic brain fog and fatigue issues.