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"How long has this been your avocation?" Oh, about 30 years. "How long have you been aware of this forum?" 2 days. "Are you a native English speaker?" Yes.
Welcome to the forum.
Restating from above: Keep your sense of humour AND a pair of tall rubber boots handy.
Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.
Maybe engine out due to fuel starvation followed by excessively abrupt full power to the live engine. We've this seen cause uncontrollable roll to the dead engine with t-props; not sure how it would go on a 414. We've also seen a Lear spin in from excessive bank angle at approach speed and low altitude with two good engines.
You're obviously"English". Forums exist for these discussions, and as long as the subject does not vary outside the realm of the room, participants may engage in speculation and conjecture.
You're on a good track, except that no difficulty was indicated from the pilot prior to the spin. If fuel was a factor, then the pilot should have either declared a fuel emergency or landed somewhere prior to entering the hold. Once you declare an emergency, all bets are off as far as where you can land, what maneuvers you can engage in to position the aircraft for landing, and exert authority over controllers to aid your flight to a safe recovery. Yes, you'll get the Third Degree from the FAA after you shut down, but that should not be a concern.
***participants may engage in speculation and conjecture.***
We may have to wait for the final report.
Based on incomplete data, there does seem to be hints of fuel problems [my comments below do not differ greatly from Evan's]
In particular I am seeing the plane tending to lose altitude AND bargain for other runways CONCURRENTLY (yes without declaring the magical "E" word- that often is NOT_uttered).
I think the dude basically ran out of altitude and airspeed (had a similar deal nearby last winter- engine problem on a Bonanza while talking to a control tower on base leg. Sadly, he came down pretty vertically (terrain extremely level, but a giant strip malls of cars and light poles and islands with trees and roofs with air conditioners). (This case was not fuel starvation)
Did an engine sputter to trigger spin like behavior or did he just run out of airspeed? No FDR/CVR to really ever know.
Pure unfounded parlour speculation: SEEMS like he was trying to "sneak in" and then maybe did his "mayday" call when it was 'over with'.
Bobby: Real stuff or just microwave?
Les règles de l'aviation de base découragent de longues périodes de dur tirer vers le haut.
It's going to be a looong wait, I'm afraid. The NTSB used to fill the gap between Preliminary and Final Reports with an intermediate, abbreviated entry (Factual Data) containing their investigation findings, but not their Probable Cause. Their process is time consuming, to say the least. As I stated, show me a video of the crash sequence, and I can conjecture a fair estimation of what the NTSB will publish as their Probable Cause.
I don't know the stall characteristics of a Cessna 414, i.e does it drop a wing and spin or does it just go nose down but the only video we see ( https://youtu.be/HS5UVsCHLd8 ) shows it coming down vertically with a very slow rotation to the right. The lack of fire on impact is a factor that makes me curious and ask "did it run out of fuel" ?
To get to the truth we need to wait for the NTSB report.
If it 'ain't broken........ Don't try to mend it !
As I stated, show me a video of the crash sequence, and I can conjecture a fair estimation of what the NTSB will publish as their Probable Cause.
Umm, yeah...a video of the full crash sequence would be pretty insightful...Would also be nice to have airliner like CVR and FDR data too...maybe even in-cockpit cameras (whatcha think?). I know it's just a light twin, but why not?
The US is not quite up with Russia yet on EVERYONE having an operating dash cam on their car, so I think the final straight down dive is all you're gonna get. Let us know if anyone has other video on PPRUNE.
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