Second Turnback This Week Due to Unruly Pax

[Evan]

Then cite one, please, with a link to the actual study, not a recap of a study from almost a year ago. Thanks in advance. That's how one argues Science rather than Science(TM).

You are, of course, reversing the burden of proof. Unless newer research finds otherwise, older research prevails. That is how Science works.

However, here is the most recent:

From a study released on May 18:

Post-COVID conditions comprise a wide range of health problems that may occur four weeks or more after infection with the virus that causes COVID-19.¹ The symptoms may be new, ongoing or returning, and may appear even in people who did not have symptoms of COVID-19 when they were infected. Post-COVID conditions are known by various terms, including long COVID, long-haul COVID, long-term effects of COVID-19 and post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 or of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC).^2,3,4 Commonly reported post-COVID conditions include fatigue, shortness of breath, cough, headache, loss of taste or smell, and cognitive or mental health impairments (such as anxiety or depression).⁵ Systematic reviews have found that the worldwide prevalence of post-COVID conditions in patients who have had COVID-19 is 43 percent⁶ to 54 percent<sup>.7

6</sup> Chen Chen et al., “Global Prevalence of Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) or Long COVID: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review,” medRxiv, posted November 16, 2021,
⁷ Destin Groff et al., “Short-Term and Long-Term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review,” JAMA Network Open 4, no. 10 (October 13, 2021): e2128568,

Note two things:

- While the citations are indeed from late 2021, the study conclusions are from May of 2022. This indicates that nothing more recent has been presented to refute those late 2021 studies. There is currently no scientific research supporting a reduction in long-covid incidence.
- The rates cited are much higher than 30%. Margins or error have been factored into the current consensus that the rate is around 1 in 3.

Also, it is very important to note that the study finds that 75% of long-covid sufferers were never sick enough to be hospitalized. This indicates that severity is not a driving factor for long Covid and therefore a less severe variant does not equate to a lower expected incidence of long Covid.

Link to the actual study:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media2.fair...te%20Paper.pdf

[ATLcrew]

All of which would have been avoided if only we wore mouthdiapers for "a little while longer", right?

[Evan]

All of which would have been avoided if only we wore mouthdiapers for "a little while longer", right?

Diminished, not entirely avoided. But yes, the current resurgence is the result of populations that can no longer endure even modest hardship or inconvenience in the interests of public health. The pandemic is now a bit less than two and a half years long (it could have been less than two years). The Black Death lasted four years. What a lot of snowflakes we've become.

If you follow the numbers, you see where we repeatedly make the error of relaxing Covid measures about two weeks too early. When it can no longer find a fertile valley of unprotected human hosts, it will subside.

I hope you're taking this seriously. Airline pilot is not a great job for those with chronic brain fog and fatigue issues.

[ATLcrew]

If you follow the numbers, you see where we repeatedly make the error of relaxing Covid measures about two weeks too early.

What numbers would those be?

[Evan]

What numbers would those be?

The daily reported cases and hospitalization figures. I particularly watch the hospitalization numbers as they give a truer depiction of the current trend in infections. What you see there represents Covid infections from about 5-7 days in the past. So any conclusion that the threat has past must require that many prior days of acceptably low numbers.

[TeeVee]

You are, of course, reversing the burden of proof. Unless newer research finds otherwise, older research prevails. That is how Science works.

However, here is the most recent:

From a study released on May 18:



Note two things:

- While the citations are indeed from late 2021, the study conclusions are from May of 2022. This indicates that nothing more recent has been presented to refute those late 2021 studies. There is currently no scientific research supporting a reduction in long-covid incidence.
- The rates cited are much higher than 30%. Margins or error have been factored into the current consensus that the rate is around 1 in 3.

Also, it is very important to note that the study finds that 75% of long-covid sufferers were never sick enough to be hospitalized. This indicates that severity is not a driving factor for long Covid and therefore a less severe variant does not equate to a lower expected incidence of long Covid.

Link to the actual study:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media2.fair...te%20Paper.pdf

you are pretty funny. did you actually read this 30 page report (which was NOT peer-reviewed)???

THIS: "this report studies the population of 78,252 patients in the repository who were diagnosed with the U09.9 code from October 1, 2021,to January 31, 2022."

why is this important? because, you know, the virus mutated into its current form, omicron, which is much more transmissible, BUT much less dangerous, not only the disease, but the risk of long covid as well. the group they studied were most likely infected with delta (a much worse variant) or its predecessor (still worse than omicron).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00941-2/fulltext

Key point: "Among omicron cases, 2501 (4.5%) of 56,003 people experienced long COVID and, among delta cases, 4469 (10.8%) of 41,361 people experienced long COVID."

4.5%.

Aside from the above, let me back up several pages of this thread. are you trying to convince us and the world that mask mandates should not have been lifted because the risk (in your mind) has shifted to long covid as opposed to serious illness or death? are you proposing the continuation of masks because you think that if we just suffered a "little bit longer" the virus would disappear, like trump promised it would?

p.s. just to put things into perspective, the report you cited was prepared by a US based health cost watchdog, and was limited to privately insured patients who were given the funky new IDC code. makes me wonder if the UK study isn't more accurate...

[3WE]

Announcing “Deltacron” BA.5

I guess we’ll be hearing about more science.

[Evan]

Announcing “Deltacron” BA.5

I guess we’ll be hearing about more science.

Only if you are following science. Most people are unwilling to, or afraid to.

BA.5 is not Deltacron. Deltacron emerged months ago but never really took off. BA.4 and BA.5 do not appear to settle in the lungs as readily as Delta, although ICU admissions are climbing in Europe with the very high numbers of infections there. Most significantly, these variants easily re-infect those who have had previous Covid illness as well as those with vaccinations, so immunity is not in the cards.

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

The good news (if it works) is that a universal vaccine is being developed, hopefully for the fall. Maybe then immunity can replace masking once and for all.

[3WE]

Maybe then immunity can replace masking once and for all.

Wanna hear about Group 15 resistance in Amaranth species?

Please send a news release to inform the media that BA.5 is not Deltacron. Unfortunately, the media only uses this forum for its cutting-edge analysis of aviation safety.

However, there’s strong consensus in science that the media likes scary, sexy buzzwords. Good luck.

[Gabriel]

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

[Evan]

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

That's what I'm hearing. The vaccine seems to produce better long-term cellular immunity. That's the stuff that keeps it out of the lungs and such. Definitely idiotic to dodge the vaccine. Also, immensely irresponsible if you live in a modern civilization. Yet we have certain characters who call themselves 'libertarians' who have adopted the idea that said civilization is their entitlement, as opposed to their responsibility. If more of them end badly in this unpleasantness, the cosmic justice is not difficult to recognize.

[Gabriel]

The only reliable defense against BA.5 is masking. That's the science.

Is it not the case that the preponderance of severe illness, ICU admissions and death is an order of magnitude higher among the unvaccinated ones that among the vaccinated ones, even with BA.5?

That's what I'm hearing. The vaccine seems to produce better long-term cellular immunity. That's the stuff that keeps it out of the lungs and such.

And that doesn't count a s a reliable defense?

[Evan]

And that doesn't count a s a reliable defense?

Against serious illness, initially, it is a highly reliable defense.

Against infection it is not.

Against long-Covid, it is still unknown.

Masks are a reliable defense against all of
these things.

[TeeVee]

universal vaccine....hahahaha. science has brought us ANNUAL flu "shots" that have done nothing to end influenza. "universal" vaccines fail repeatedly. have you been wearing a mask your entire life to prevent influenza? it kills tens of thousands every year in the US alone. science has been unable to prevent the common cold, hiv, and 1000's of other viruses.

"immunity" is not the key and hasn't been for some time. survival, however, has been. drug manufacturers dont even use the word immunity anymore in discussing their versions of the vax. they talk in terms of immune response, which is a very different thing.

evan we know your opinion. keep wearing your mask please.

[Evan]

universal vaccine....hahahaha. science has brought us ANNUAL flu "shots" that have done nothing to end influenza.

TeeVee, science is an ongoing thing, and as such, it is evolving. The mRNA breakthroughs have accelerated this evolution and, ironically, work being done on universal coronavirus vaccines will likely yield universal flu vaccines as well. The problem with current vaccines is that they target protein structures at the 'head' of the virus stalks which are most susceptible to 'antigenic drift' via mutation, whereas vaccine research is now able to direct the immune system to the conserved stalk proteins which are common to a wide number of strains. There are other technologies being developed as well, including those using vector adenoviruses and nanoparticles. The game is to elicit an antigenic response from the parts of these viruses that rarely mutate. And it is being done successfully, in-vitro.

The flu is a harder thing to target because it mutates much faster, about four times faster that Covid. The reason Covid has been able to mutate as often as it has is because of the extremely high number of infections, which could be tempered dramatically if people took responsibility, got the vaccines and wore masks in populated spaces like markets, got tested and self-quarantined when they test positive. Slow down the rate of transmission and you slow down the rate of vaccine escape mutation. Dramatically. Simply 'living with it' and embracing the medieval 'virus is gonna virus' philosophy will only make mutations more common.

Also, the current flu vaccines which rely on lab-incubated inactivated virus have a greater development time and must rely on predictions far in advance. The mRNA technology uses the vaccine recipient’s own gene-transcription and translation machinery to generate the antigen protein, so it should be more agile and therefore less reliant on prediction.

And the flu has a far lower case fatality rate. Covid has also proved to be a much more broadly systemic virus by infecting organs throughout the body including the nervous system. This is why we must take it much more seriously as responsible members of a modern civilization.